Sunday, July 23, 2006

 

Dodgers - "Your bat needs some lovin'"

http://tinyurl.com/nrk5a

In 2004, Jose Lima was actually good. He pitched effectively for the Dodgers, especially at home. It was all capped by a complete game shutout of the Cardinals in the postseason.

He was also crazy. The above link is just typical of his antics that year.

That's about where' the Dodgers are now.

So what should they do, looking for a power boost?

Do not trade prospects for power. Wait for guys to get back from the DL first. Kent and Repko can belt out a few. With a bit of rest, Drew should be belting them out soon as well. Ethier has the potential, and is also a good player at hitting for average.

Grady Little should never put Lofton and Cruz in the same lineup. Cruz is decent defensively, a gold glover in 2003, but abysmal at the plate. Lofton is a nightmare in centerfield, has no arm, and hits upper .290s. The time has come though. Cruz needs to go, Lofton and Ledee can be lefty ph's, and Etheir,Repko, Drew should be the starting outfield, but Kemp comes up if Drew hits the DL.

For the infield, go with a 5 man rotation when Kent returns. Every 5th day, a player will get a day to rest on the bench. Every one of these players has had injury issues within the last year, except for Aybar. This would present a few lineup options

Kent resting:
Furcal
Izturis
Nomar
Drew
Repko
Aybar -2b
Ethier
Martin

Izturis resting
Furcal
Repko
Nomar
Kent
Drew
Aybar -3b
Ethier
Martin

Nomar resting
Furcal
Izturis
Drew
Kent - 1b
Repko
Aybar -2b
Ethier
Martin

Furcal resting
Repko
Izturis
Nomar
Kent
Drew
Aybar -3b
Ethier
Martin

Aybar resting
Furcal
Izturis
Nomar
Kent
Drew
Repko
Ethier
Martin

Lofton would be the fourth outfielder.

Bench
Lofton
Saenz
Hall
Ledee
5th inf
Martinez

The only issue here is dropping down to an 11 man pitching staff. This means drop someone when Tomko gets back. Or Ramon Martinez could go in a trade to someone who needs a utility INF.

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Friday, July 14, 2006

 

Next Year - On the Cheap, or all about the pitching

How could the Dodgers solve their problems with a reduced payroll?

Ned Colletti is not likely to decide to do this, because he likes Kent, but the guy's age is catching up with him. If some other team thinks he has upside, dealing him may not be a bad idea, especially if the trade can net a pitcher. This will be important in freeing up 3rd for Laroche while still keeping Izturis for 2nd, making the best DP combo in baseball potentially.

JD Drew is a trade begging to happen, even though he seems to be a decent clubhouse guy. Why have a $11 million outfielder when rookies can put up similar numbers? A fair trade would be Mark Prior, who is a good starter, but gets injured about as often.

Furcal ain't goin' anywhere, though.

Nomar is let go, because there are guys who can play first, and the Dodgers would get a first round draft pick. Loney might come up, and he'll likely platoon for a while with Saenz at first.

Outfield may be Ethier, Kemp, and Guzman, depending on Repko's status.

Granted, this is problematic to let the #3,4, and 5 guys go from the lineup, which is another reason it's unlikely, unless Ethier keeps hitting over .300 all season.

Odalis Perez and $11 million will go to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez.

Saito and Sele re-signed at $3 million each for a 1 year deal, and Saito gets an option for next year at $3.5 million.

Gagne leaves for the Braves and the Dodgers get another draft pick.

The Dodgers may not get a draft pick for Danys Baez.

Ramon Martinez is re-signed because he's a utilityman that can hit. Ledee because he's a lefty pinch hitter.

Tomko and Hendrickson are both dealt.

Lineup
Furcal
Izturis
Ethier
Laroche
Guzman
Kemp
Loney
Martin

(the whole 3-6 section would be in limbo, except Ethier would not bat cleanup).

Rotation
Lowe
Penny
Prior
Billingsley
Sele

Bullpen
Saito (CL)
Brazoban
Broxton
Gonzalez
Beimel
Carrara

Bench
Olmedo
Martinez
Ledee
Repko
backup catcher

Total payroll: $67 Million = $17 Million for vet shortstops + $29 Million for Vet Pitchers + $11 Million for Odalis + $7 Million for young players/rookies + $3 Million for Saenz, Ledee, Martinez

******

Uncheapening it, with the best pitching money can buy
Add Zito and Maddux for a more viable experiment:

Zito: 6 years, $92 Million (8 mil signing bonus, 14 mil/year)
Maddux: 2 years, $23 Million (11, 12 mil year)

Cancel Sele.

Give Gagne a Nomar deal: 1 year, 6 million with 4 million in incentives.

New 2007 Payroll: $103 million

New Rotation
Penny
Zito
Lowe
Maddux
Prior

Billingsley would work on efficiency at AAA, coming up in May or June when Prior is injured. Or he could become a closer. But you have to admit, these are all good starters.

New Bullpen
Gagne (CL)
Saito
Broxton
Brazoban
Gonzalez
Beimel/Kuo

That would be pretty sick.

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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

 

Dodgers - Next Year, My Idea

The Following Lineup
CF - Furcal
SS - Izturis
1B - Nomar
3B - Beltre
2B - Kent
LF - Ethier
RF - Kemp
C - Martin

Rotation
1. Penny
2. Maddux
3. Lowe
4. Hernandez
5. Billingsley/Tomko/Hendrickson

Bullpen
CL - Gagne
Saito
Brazoban
Broxton
Kuo
Tomko/Hendrickson

Bench
Saenz
Martinez
Ledee
Guzman
(non roster invite catcher)
Robles

Transactions to make this possible -
1) Toby Hall, Andy Laroche, JD Drew, and PTBNL to the Seattle Mariners for Adrian Beltre and Felix Hernandez
2) Nomar to a 3 year, $32 million deal, including a $5 million signing bonus, and $9 million per year over 3 years.
2) Sign Ricky Ledee, Ramon Martinez, Oscar Robles
3) Invite a bunch of backup catchers to spring training
4) Free agent signing of Greg Maddux to a 1 year deal at $12 Million, with team option for $12 million and $2 million buyout for 2008
5) Eat Odalis Perez' contract
6) Trade Hendrickson or Tomko for a mid-level prospect
7) Sign Eric Gagne to a 1 year deal at $6 million with a $1 million bonus for 40 IP, and $1 million more at each 50, 60, 70 IP
8) Sign Takashi Saito to 1 year $3 million with option for $3 million or buyout of $500,000

Payroll changes
1) + $2 million
2) + $14 million
3) + $3 million
4) + $1 million
5) + $12 million
6) no change
7) no change
8) + $6 million
9) + $3 million

Payroll (estimated): $122 million

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Dodgers - Next Year, Questions

"Wait til next year" was the motto of the Brooklyn Dodgers. What about next year? There are some players under contract, some likely to be traded before the deadline, some that aren't under contract but not eligible to be free agents, and some eligible free agents.

Players Under Contract
Izturis ($4.15 Million)
Furcal ($13 Million)
Drew ($11 Million)
Kent ($11 Million)
Tomko ($4.1 Million)
Perez ($10 Million)
Mueller ($4.5 Million)
Lowe ($9.5 Million)
Penny ($8 Million)
Saenz ($1 Million)

buyouts
Cruz ($ 0.3 Million)
Gagne ($1 Million)

Do the math, and that's $77.55 Million. That's not all. There are other guys the Dodgers have used this year already that could be part of the club

Not Eligible for Free Agency
Martin - C
Broxton - RP
Billingsley - SP
Kuo - RP
Ethier - OF
Kemp - OF
Guzman - OF/3B/1B/SS
Laroche - 3B
Loney - 1B/OF
Hall - C
Hendrickson - SP
Brazoban - RP

Free Agents
Nomar Garciaparra - 1B
Eric Gagne - CL
Takashi Saito - CL
Ricky Ledee - OF
Jose Cruz - OF
Kenny Lofton - OF
Danys Baez - RP
Giovanni Carrara - RP
Ramon Martinez - INF
Aaron Sele - SP

The two players just acquired via trade, Hendrickson and Hall, are themselves likely to be traded. Hall will be a catcher playing for a contract year, and Hendrickson is a left-handed starting pitcher. Realistically, this is what the Dodgers roster will look like next year

Infield
1B - ?
2B - Kent
SS - Furcal
3B - ?

It's the shortstops out of position. Whether or not to keep Nomar is the first question. If not, does Kent move to first and Izturis to second, clearing third for Laroche? Or does Nomar stay, Kent stay at 2nd, Furcal at short, and Izturis stay at third, blocking Laroche? Or is Izturis traded? Or is Laroche traded? It's basically down to whether Nomar Garciaparra, Cesar Izturis, or Andy Laroche is the odd man out, and that will depend largely on the quality of talent available in the draft. Or Rafael Furcal could be the new centerfielder, and all three could stay, but that's not very likely given the farm system's outfield depth.

Outfield
LF - Ethier
CF - Repko
RF - Drew

Kemp may be the 4th outfielder because of he can play all three positions, and Grady will likely give Drew plenty of rest. Drew would likely be traded if his value rises enough, given that he's still a fairly solid player when he's not broken, which could prompt a position switch for Furcal.

Catcher - Martin

It's his spot now, and for years to come. The end.

Bench
Saenz - 1B/3B
OF - Kemp
OF - ?
INF - ?
C - ?

The question here is whether Colletti lets the rookies go loose, or if he keeps some veterans around to help with the transition. Ledee would be a good option for the 5th outfielder, as well as Martinez for the utilityman. The backup catcher will be a non-roster invite unless Hall gets more playing time in LA.

Rotation
Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
4 - ?
5 - ?

Brad Penny is the new #1, but Lowe is solid too. Where Tomko and Hendrickson go is a question mark. One of them will likely be traded. A free agent signing would be a possibility, most likely Greg Maddux.

Bullpen
CL - ?
Brazoban
Broxton
Kuo
Perez
?

Is there any chance of a Gagne return? What about Saito? Will Odalis Perez stick around, or perhaps even be an effective reliever? The "CL - ?" says everything.

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Friday, July 07, 2006

 

ESPN's All-time All-Star List

ESPN has a vote for the all time all-star. They asked me to vote for some of these, but I can't bring myself to select one of their picks for some of them.

Starting Catcher
Roy Campanella 1953
Johnny Bench 1970
Mike Piazza 1997

I went with Campy because he had a great combo of HR, Power and RBI, and also because he was a better defensive guy than Piazza. The Dodgers have always succeeded in producing catchers, so they had to get hat position.

Now a none of the above:

Starting First Baseman
Stan Musial 1946
Will Clark 1989
Jeff Bagwell 1996

How about Derrek Lee 2005? The guy batted .335, hit 46 HR and batted in 107. The Cubs had a winning record this year before his injury! Or for that matter, Mark McGwire 1998, 70 HR .299 BA. People still pitched to him; of his 162 walks, only 28 were intentional.

Starting Second Baseman
Joe Morgan 1975
Joe Morgan 1976
Ryne Sandberg 1990
Craig Biggio 1997

First, it is absurd to give Joe Morgan two shots on similar seasons, especially since he's an ESPN broadcaster. But I will say that his speed combo in 1975 was good.

Starting Shortstop
Honus Wagner 1908
Arky Vaughan 1935
Ozzie Smith 1987

I pick Smith, because he's the best defensive shortstop quite possibly in the history of the game. And he hit .300 that year. End of story.

Starting Third Baseman
Eddie Matthews 1953
Dick Allen 1964
Mike Schmidt 1980

Adrian Beltre in 2004 batted .334 with 48 homers and 121 RBI. He was also part of the best defensive infield in the National League that year. Tell me again why he's not on the list if we're just looking at single-season performance. I guess the same reason Roger Maris isn't on the AL List.

Starting Outfielder
Hack Wilson 1930
Mell Ott 1936
Willie Mays 1954
Duke Snider 1954
Willie Mays 1955
Frank Robinson 1962
Hank Aaron 1963
Barry Bonds 1996
Barry Bonds 2001

Again, absolutely worthless to give Mays and Bonds each two seasons. Aaron is a gimme. Snider absolutely deserves to be there for the average and RBI combo, and Wilson hit .356 that year.

Starting Pitcher
Christy Mathewson 1905
Bob Gibson 1966
Dwight Gooden 1985
Greg Maddux 1994
Randy Johnson 2002

It doesn't take a genius for this one. This list is officially worthless for its negligence of Sandy Koufax. I'd pick the 1965 Koufax, with a 2.04 ERA, 0.855 WHIP (they never cite WHIP, just W-L and ERA), and 382 K. Koufax even came out of the bullpen to save a couple games, and pitched 27 complete games, although '63 Koufax pitched 11 shutouts. Fernando '86 was the last pitcher to pitch 20 complete games. Don't forget the greatest knuckleballer of all time, Phil Niekro. No votes for a dead-ball pitcher (Mathewson) either.

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