Thursday, March 30, 2006
Bracket Update
Now that the Final Four teams are playing this weekend, I'll get to what happened in my brackets after day 1.
Gut Instinct
I called 24 first round victories out of a possible 32. Of my Sweet 16 Picks, I picked 75% again with 12 teams, the four failures being Tennessee, Air Force (who didn't pass the first round and should never have been picked), Kansas (the Bradley upset), and Syracuse (the WVA upset). All of my elite 8 picks were correct, except Duke. Unfortunately, Duke was the champion I picked, so there will be no more winners in this bracket. Peaked at a rank of 365 on ESPN. The only final four team I called was UCLA.
Kitty
Kitty didn't do so well. Sure, she called Northwest and Montana, but two of her final four teams didn't make it past the first round. She had 10 Sweet 16's and 2 elite 8's. UCLA is her only remaining final 4 team.
The Crazy One
Apparently not so crazy now, and shame on me for thinking that it was unrealistic to put my own school in the final 4. Nothing else was called well other than GMU all the way. GMU is not only the only final 4 team left in this one, but the only elite 8 team too. I mean, the final four calls for this were UNCW, Bucknell, Milwaukee, and GMU. Only GMU was good.
Moneyball
Actually quite reliable. It was but a round premature, but it did correctly forsee the demise of Duke. It probably needs some refining. Unfortunately, it called Texas as the Champion, although my final four methodology was to go by electoral votes, because Moneyball never picks champions, just people who can get close. Only 8 sweet 16s, but 5 elite 8's. This did call GMU and Florida though, along with Texas and Kansas.
Coin Flip
When you call half of the first round, that's weak. Especially when you call those teams in pairs. Calling UConn as the national champ didn't work out so well either. Remaining were 5 Sweet 16 teams, just UConn in the elite 8, and now, nobody. Never flip a coin. As long as you are not completely stupid, you can make up a better bracket.
Gut Instinct
I called 24 first round victories out of a possible 32. Of my Sweet 16 Picks, I picked 75% again with 12 teams, the four failures being Tennessee, Air Force (who didn't pass the first round and should never have been picked), Kansas (the Bradley upset), and Syracuse (the WVA upset). All of my elite 8 picks were correct, except Duke. Unfortunately, Duke was the champion I picked, so there will be no more winners in this bracket. Peaked at a rank of 365 on ESPN. The only final four team I called was UCLA.
Kitty
Kitty didn't do so well. Sure, she called Northwest and Montana, but two of her final four teams didn't make it past the first round. She had 10 Sweet 16's and 2 elite 8's. UCLA is her only remaining final 4 team.
The Crazy One
Apparently not so crazy now, and shame on me for thinking that it was unrealistic to put my own school in the final 4. Nothing else was called well other than GMU all the way. GMU is not only the only final 4 team left in this one, but the only elite 8 team too. I mean, the final four calls for this were UNCW, Bucknell, Milwaukee, and GMU. Only GMU was good.
Moneyball
Actually quite reliable. It was but a round premature, but it did correctly forsee the demise of Duke. It probably needs some refining. Unfortunately, it called Texas as the Champion, although my final four methodology was to go by electoral votes, because Moneyball never picks champions, just people who can get close. Only 8 sweet 16s, but 5 elite 8's. This did call GMU and Florida though, along with Texas and Kansas.
Coin Flip
When you call half of the first round, that's weak. Especially when you call those teams in pairs. Calling UConn as the national champ didn't work out so well either. Remaining were 5 Sweet 16 teams, just UConn in the elite 8, and now, nobody. Never flip a coin. As long as you are not completely stupid, you can make up a better bracket.
Labels: NCAA Brackets
Friday, March 17, 2006
Bracketology - First Day Results
ESPN.com has a place to enter your brackets for a shot at $10000. Well, after day 1, my 5 Entries have had mixed results. Actually, I have done well in all of them except one. I used different strategies for each one, and named them.
Gut Instinct - Self explanatory, I think. I essentially picked teams that I felt would do well, based on what I knew about them, or what state they were in. I was clueless on that Minneapolis bracket, but I did call the Milwaukee upset over Oklahoma. I'm saying Duke beats UConn in the championship.
Kitty - This is the strangest bracket I did. I did it though, because last year, my cat picked Vermont in that upset. Basically I hold out two fingers, and the one she goes towards is the one I pick. She went 11 for 16 on the first day. Unfortunately, she picked Syracuse to win the tournament, and Syracuse got eliminated tonight.
The Crazy One - George Mason University wins it all. Basically a parallel universe in which this happens. I did this because I get 5 entries, and I should be loyal to my school. Still, it's done 11 for 16.
Moneyball - I'm a Dodger fan, so this title should haunt me, but it's my best one so far, at 12 for 16. Basically, I made the assumption that having an even point spread among starters is a good plan, because that way you have plenty of strengths and options. I did think it was important if your leading scorer could put out a lot, though. So I took the scoring averages for the starters from MSNBC.com and made up the formula
PPG, of course, means points per game. What I really like about this statistic is that it favors George Mason heavily. In fact, it carried the Patriots to the final four. Once I got to the Final Four, though, I decided that Moneyball never wins championships in real life. So I made my picks based on states' electoral votes, giving Texas the win.
Virtual Coin Flip - This was out of laziness. First, I was too lazy to do another research bracket, so I figured I'd flip a coin. Then, I was too lazy to flip a coin that many times. So I just had a calculater give me a random binomial sample, and I determined the winner from there. ESPN.com was congested when I was submitting this, and I figured I must have picked some awful teams and was being rejected, so I changed some of them while I was waiting for it to submit. I ended up with UConn winning this one. Go figure. This has done the worst, at 7 for 16.
So those are my results. I use the gut instinct one in a pool with my roommates, and I have an early lead. Time will tell if it holds.
Gut Instinct - Self explanatory, I think. I essentially picked teams that I felt would do well, based on what I knew about them, or what state they were in. I was clueless on that Minneapolis bracket, but I did call the Milwaukee upset over Oklahoma. I'm saying Duke beats UConn in the championship.
Kitty - This is the strangest bracket I did. I did it though, because last year, my cat picked Vermont in that upset. Basically I hold out two fingers, and the one she goes towards is the one I pick. She went 11 for 16 on the first day. Unfortunately, she picked Syracuse to win the tournament, and Syracuse got eliminated tonight.
The Crazy One - George Mason University wins it all. Basically a parallel universe in which this happens. I did this because I get 5 entries, and I should be loyal to my school. Still, it's done 11 for 16.
Moneyball - I'm a Dodger fan, so this title should haunt me, but it's my best one so far, at 12 for 16. Basically, I made the assumption that having an even point spread among starters is a good plan, because that way you have plenty of strengths and options. I did think it was important if your leading scorer could put out a lot, though. So I took the scoring averages for the starters from MSNBC.com and made up the formula
((#number of starters with over 10 PPG) + (highest PPG of a starter))
(standard deviation of starters' PPG)
PPG, of course, means points per game. What I really like about this statistic is that it favors George Mason heavily. In fact, it carried the Patriots to the final four. Once I got to the Final Four, though, I decided that Moneyball never wins championships in real life. So I made my picks based on states' electoral votes, giving Texas the win.
Virtual Coin Flip - This was out of laziness. First, I was too lazy to do another research bracket, so I figured I'd flip a coin. Then, I was too lazy to flip a coin that many times. So I just had a calculater give me a random binomial sample, and I determined the winner from there. ESPN.com was congested when I was submitting this, and I figured I must have picked some awful teams and was being rejected, so I changed some of them while I was waiting for it to submit. I ended up with UConn winning this one. Go figure. This has done the worst, at 7 for 16.
So those are my results. I use the gut instinct one in a pool with my roommates, and I have an early lead. Time will tell if it holds.
Labels: NCAA Brackets
