Because I Can

Baseball got a labor contract. Let's all cheer that they're guaranteed not to strike until at least 2011. Now, let's look at the specifics of this contract and comment on it:

Summary of MLBPA-Major League Baseball Labor Agreement
Term
1. Five-year labor contract.
2. Termination date - December 11, 2011.

I believe I just said that, but now you have the official press release version.

Revenue Sharing
1. Net transfer of revenue sharing plan will be the same as the current plan ($326 million in 2006). Net transfer amounts will continue to grow with revenue and changes in disparity.
2. Marginal tax rates for all recipients are reduced significantly through the use of a new central fund redistribution mechanism. Rates reduced to 31% from 40% (high revenue Clubs) and 48% (low revenue Clubs) under old agreement.
3. All Clubs face the same marginal rate for first time.
4. Commissioner's Discretionary Fund will continue at $10 million per year, with cap of $3 million per Club per year.
5. Provision requiring revenue sharing recipients to spend receipts to improve on-field performance retained with modifications.

There's the revenue sharing issue, which is baseball's way of trying to encourage teams to be more equitable in sharing resources.

Policy number (5) is the biggest sticking point with the high revenue clubs, the idea that a team could get $30 million in revenue sharing and have a $15 million payroll. I have to wonder what the penalties for breaking this rule are.

Competitive Balance Tax
1. Competitive Balance Tax structure from 2002 agreement is continued.
2. Rates will continue at 22 ½ % for Clubs over the threshold the first time, 30% for Clubs over the threshold the second time and 40% for Clubs over threshold the third time. 3. Clubs that paid 40% in 2006 will face 40% rate in 2007.
4. Thresholds reset to $148 million in 2007, $155 million in 2008, $162 million in 2009, $170 million in 2010 and $178 million in 2011.

This is part of how they get revenue to share. The payroll threshold, which has really only applied to the Yankees and Red Sox, rises, for the luxury tax. This is where the super-bloated payroll starts to hurt, as that $200 million payroll really costs the Yankees $80 million. Nothing exciting here.

We are also told the "Debt Service Rule" from 2002 has been retained, so here's what that says:

Debt
A team may not have more debt than 10 times EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization), except that a team that has moved into a newly constructed ballpark within the past 10 years may not have more debt than 15 times EBIDTA. There will be a three-year grace period, during which the commissioner has the right to retain the debt service rule, fully implemented. If he so elects, the commissioner must revoke the 60-40 assets-to-debt ratio rule. If he doesn't want to revoke the 60-40 rule, the debt-service rule becomes fully implemented.

This says that ballclubs have to pay off those gigantic loans used to build stadiums, and they can't ruin a franchise by burying it in debt. Now let's get to the interesting stuff.

Amateur Draft
1. Clubs that fail to sign first or second round draft pick will receive the same pick in the subsequent draft as compensation. Club that fails to sign a third round pick will receive a sandwich pick between rounds three and four in the subsequent draft as compensation.
2. Period of time before a Player must be protected from the Rule 5 Draft is changed from three or four years from first minor league season to four or five years from year of signing.
3. Signing deadline of August 15 for draft picks other than college seniors.

This entire section is huge, and deserves to be addressed point by point.
1) Failure to sign a first or second round draft get the same pick next year as a compensation. This provides not only equity, but improves the club's position, particularly if the next year is poised to be a much better draft year.
2) This makes a difference because the younger players not yet developed have more time to do so, especially for teams that have them for the purpose of depth when they have an injury-prone major league roster.
3) This is the biggest part of the draft rules. A player has to sign by August 15 instead of by next June. I don't know if he becomes eligible to be signed at large after this or not, and in that case his wage would rise because the future price would rise because the monopsony would be lifted faster. I also don't know what this will mean if securing a visa for Canadian draft picks gets harder.

Draft Choice Compensation
1. Type C free agents eliminated in 2006
2. Also in 2006, compensation for type B players becomes indirect (sandwich pick) as opposed to direct compensation from signing Club.
3. Effective 2007, Type A players limited to top 20 percent of each position (down from 30 percent) and Type B players become 21 percent - 40 percent at each position (rather than 31 percent - 50 percent).
4. Salary arbitration offer and acceptance dates move to December 1 and December 7

Now that teams have to spend revenue sharing money on payroll, this is set up so that their draft won't have to suffer. This is also good for the players, because the cost of losing them increases, so teams have greater incentive to retain them for the next year. For those of you not keeping score, type A free agents are the ones that get you a first round draft pick, and type B give you a second round pick.

Benefit Plan
1. Players Benefit Plan continued with maximum allowable benefit under IRS rules.
2. $154.5 million average annual contribution.
3. Improved benefits for some retired players.

Minimum Salary
1. Major League: $380,000 in 2007, $390,000 in 2008 and $400,000 in 2009, COLA in 2011.
2. Minor League: $60,000 in 2007, $62,500 in 2008, $65,000 in 2009.
3. New minimum for first time roster players of 50% of minor league minimum.
4. Maximum cut rule applicable to split contracts reduced to 60% from 80%.

Under salary, that just means you can make $30k on a cup of coffee. Otherwise, nothing that interesting here. These guys make money.

Free Agency
1. Eliminate December 7, December 19, January 8 and May 1 deadlines for free agents.
2. Tender Date - December 12
3. Eliminate right to demand a trade for all new multi-year contracts.

Other
1. Home-field advantage in World Series to League that wins the All-Star Game.
2. Drug program continues.
3. Settlement of 40 plus grievances and disputes.
4. No contraction during term of agreement.

The free agency moves are particularly interesting because of the types of deadlines removed. The January 8 and May 1 deadlines in particular are huge, as they signify that now a club doesn't risk losing the rights to negotiate with their player just because they don't re-sign him by early January.

The agreement is bold as far as allowing clubs to maintain and improve rosters, but the consequences for the draft remain to be seen.

Labels: MLB

So I say Tigers sweep, and then the Tigers play crappy baseball on Saturday. Just great.

Speaking of crappy, I can't get a picture, but I'm going to say right now that Kenny Rogers did not properly wipe his hand after going to the bathroom. He's the monkey pitcher; he flung poo. Rhymes with spitball.

Labels: MLB

Ok, I've expressed my preference for A-Rod, particularly as it means the Dodgers can keep Nomar, but in retrospect, I would rather not trade Penny, but Kuo. Kuo is a wild card, but he's actually at a high point in his value. The Yankees might like the idea of having two old high school teammates from Taiwan on the same team, too. Still, that is a costly move, so I will consider other moves that would be advantageous.

1) Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnatti Reds. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer (HT: TrueBlueLA.com), Reds General Manager Wayne Krivsky really hates strikeouts, and would rather have a low strikeout rate than a lot of power. The article really points to Krivsky trading Adam Dunn, who lead the league with 194 strikeouts and hit .234. Dunn is coming off a below average year, though; his career average is .245. Before thinking he's terrible, though, look at his full batting line for 2006 and it's .234/.365/490, and did I mention he hit 40 homers, and that he had more extra-base hits than singles? By comparison, Andre Ethier put up a line of .308/.365/.477. Given Krivsky's obsession with mediocre pitchers and the Dodgers' likely willingness to deal Mark Hendrickson, Brett Tomko, and/or Joe Beimel, that might be just the ticket. Sure he's $10 million next year, and his option becomes void as he hits the free agent market, but Matt Kemp could very easily be ready after a year of tearing up in AAA.

2) Alfonso Soriano, OF/2B, Free Agent. Soriano is a free agent, so the good news is that nobody will be traded. The bad news, though, is that we can't simultaneously get rid of Brett Tomko by signing Sori. Still, offensively he is the power guy the Dodgers need, and he can also be a speedster if he has to be. Last year, his first year in the NL, he learned how to walk, and hopefully this will continue this year. What makes him viable is that he can also play second base (whenever Kemp is ready), or left field, and he's a plus defensive left fielder. Offensively, he's a huge plus as a second baseman. What makes this seem viable is that after watching Kent play second with his stunning .790 Zone Rating, Soriano would be a step up. Additionally, after being a good defensive left fielder, Sori may want to extend that reputation to the middle infield.

3) Jim Edmonds, CF, Potential Free Agent. Now granted, the Cardinals do have an option on him, but after an injury-riddled season, why not test the market. After all, they have Encarnacion in right, a defensive specialist in Taguchi who could possibly play center, and Chris Duncan for left field. Edmonds has a $10 million option, and the Cardinals may have other ideas as to how to spend that money. Edmonds is in kind of a Jeff Kent situation, where he had an injury riddled year, and could be worse next year. On the other hand, not only does he have the potential to still be good offensively (he was limited to 350 AB), but he's one of the best defensive (read: not Kenny Lofton) center fielders in the game.

4) Gary Sheffield, OF, Free Agent. Hey Gary, how's it going? Yeah, remember how you were mad about your contract a few years back? Um, forget about it. It's history. Wanna come back? We could use a cleanup hitter. And you'll be in right field, not at first base. Although, he did have a wrist injury, so maybe that won't be the best idea, as he might not have that power stroke next year.

I will amend this list if I see anything.

*****

As it stands, here's the Dodgers' defensive lineup next year (italics for iffy players):

c - Martin
1b - Loney
2b - Kent
3b - Betemit
ss - Furcal
lf - Ethier
cf - Repko
rf - Drew

Rotation
Lowe, Penny, Maddux, Billingsley, Kuo

All that needs to be done now is to get Gagne, Saito, and Brazoban back in the bullpen along with Broxton, and throw in Greg Miller. Dessens mops up.

Labels: Dodgers

Ok, so I picked the Mets in 7. At least I got 7, but the Cardinals won. And I picked the Tigers in 6, and they swept. So why bother?

You know what, I'm going with the Tigers. Because they have pitching everywhere. And they have a good bottom of the lineup. Tigers sweep.

Labels: MLB

JA Adande, in this column in the LA Times yesterday said something with which I will disagree sharply:

My problem is this: Name a team that has been better off for taking on Rodriguez's contract, even a portion of it. The Rangers? They never won the division with him. The Yankees? They never made the World Series with him.

For both teams, this is not an issue of a third baseman's problems, but of the consequences of poor pitching staffs. The Texas Rangers team ERA year-by-year:

2001: 5.71
2002: 5.15
2003: 5.67
2004: 4.53
2005: 4.96

That's it! Alex Rodriguez was a crappy pitcher bringing down the team ERA!

But seriously, in 2004 the Rangers had a stellar bullpen, including Francisco Cordero's best year as a closer. As for 2005, chaulk that up to quality seasons from Kenny Rogers and Chris Young.

What about the Yankees pitching? Same analysis:

2001: 4.02
2002: 3.87
2003: 4.02
2004: 4.69
2005: 4.52

The difference for the Yankees was a loss of quality starters, namely Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells, and the influx of Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, etc.

******************

That said, here's what I want to put out

Lineup:
Furcal - ss
Ethier - lf
Nomar - 1b
A-Rod - 3b
Drew - cf
Kent - 2b
Loney - rf
Martin - c

Rotation
Lowe
Zito/Matsusaka/Schmidt
Maddux
Billingsley
Kuo

Bullpen
Gagne
Saito
Broxton
Brazoban
Hendrickson
Dessens

Bench
Martinez
Repko
Anderson
(non roster backup catcher)
Saenz
(non-roster guy)

OUT:
Lugo
Lofton
Hall
Tomko
Penny
Betemit

Note that italics denote a position change and bold denotes a new acquisition.

The idea is that the team acquires one more starting pitcher from the free agent market, re-signs Eric Gagne, Nomar Garicaparra, Greg Maddux and Takashi Saito, and then trades Brad Penny, Toby Hall, Wilson Betemit, and Brett Tomko off for Alex Rodriguez and prospects (not necessarily all Yankees prospects). Kenny Lofton is a free agent and goes somewhere to provide a center fielder and leadoff man.

The position changes are of this logic: JD Drew wants to play center, so now he can. Loney has played the outfield in the minors, so he can probably play adequately, and move to first if Nomar is out. The important thing is for his bat to be in the lineup. Kent probably will not play in 2008, but Nomar would. Nomar could probably be a decent second base candidate for that year, given the Dodgers' lack of depth at the position, and he would be less prone to throwing errors since he wouldn't have as much distance to throw. Then Loney could move back to first and Kemp could play in the outfield.

I want A-Rod because he's unofficially available and the Dodgers need a boost at third base. Any other option would involve blocking Matt Kemp for three years, which will not do.

*****

The Boston Red Sox got a .299 OBP from their starting shortstop. Given the free agent market, if the Red Sox want offense out of their shortstop position, they may be due for an awkward reunion of sorts.

Labels: Dodgers

Well, if you read my post last week, you'll notice that none of my picks advanced. That's right, none. Zip, zero, zilch, nada.

So we're left with these two serieses

Mets vs Cardinals

Ok, Mets. They have the lineup, and neither team has the pitching, except Carpenter for the Cards. I don't care how many squeeze bunts Larussa drops down, the Mets can power their way through.

prediction: Mets in 6

A's vs Tigers

I really don't know here. Detroit has the best defense for a staff of groundball pitchers, but Sean Casey is their 3 hitter. They have a good bottom of the lineup, though. The A's on the other hand have 3 big power guys in Thomas and Swisher, and a lineup that does a good job getting on base. This one is close to call, but I think the final blow will be Billy Beane facing down his demons as the A's are shut down by Jeremy Bonderman.

prediction: Tigers in 7

Labels: Dodgers, MLB

That's right. The postseason matchups have been announced. And ladies and gents, here they are, with commentary.

American League
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Jim Leyland's bunch go up against the nastiest lineup ever. Seriously, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada are at the bottom of the lineup. That's just sick. Sure the rotation's not much, but everyone's healthy just in time for the postseason, and they actually made it there despite missing Shef and Matsui. The Tigers have good defense and groundball pitchers, so that will continue to work to their advantage. Still, the Yankees look like the juggernaut.

Season Series: 5-2 Yankees

Starters:
Robertson vs Wang
Verlander vs Mussina
Johnson vs Rogers

Prediction: Yankees in 4


Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Wow, two teams that really picked it up later on in the season. The A's have been hot in the second half, but the Twins have been hotter. Shooting all the way to the top in a short run, they will be nasty to beat. The A's real weapons are their pitching, all the way through. The Twins have great pitching as well, particularly in Santana and Nathan, though if you look at their regular season numbers, you'll see how much better Liriano made them. There are some significant bats for the Twins as they've got batting leader Joe Mauer, as well as power bats Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau. The A's feature Nick Swisher and future hall-of-famer Frank Thomas.

Season series: 6-4 Minnesota

Starters:
Zito vs Santana
Haren vs Bonser
Garza vs Loaiza

Prediction: Minnesota in 5

National League
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
As far as lineups go, the Mets have the advantage of having the most home run power, but that isn't hard against the Dodgers. What makes this difficult for the Dodgers, though, is that the Mets have speed to match them. The Mets have speedsters in Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Chavez, while the Dodgers have them in Furcal, Lofton, Lugo, and Martin (yes, the catcher). The Dodgers have been more dynamic in making changes to their pitching, though, as nobody in their bullpen started the year in the majors, and neither has their catcher. The Dodgers also upgraded their rotation by picking up Greg Maddux, while the Mets added Guillermo Mota to replace Duaner Sanchez. The Dodgers as a team seem to have the most balance, though. Their lineup, in particular, is well balanced with pretty good hitters 1-8 (unless Lugo starts). In the second half, it is worth noting that the Dodgers are hotter in the second half, although the Mets weren't a bad second half team either. Most critically, though, may be rotation depth. The Mets have El Duque and Tom Glavine for the front of the rotation, but the Dodgers have not only Lowe and Maddux, but also options with Penny, Billingsley, and Kuo, while the Mets have Steve Traschel, John Maine, and Oliver Perez.

Season series: 4-3 Mets

Lowe vs El Duque
Maddux vs Glavine
TBA vs TBA

Prediction: Dodgers in 4

St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

The St. Louis Cardinals would have been the favorites in this series for the past few years, and the beginning of this year. Things have changed, though. The Padres got better. They made some nice offseason moves, acquired guys who will make the future bright, and got that Piazza fellow too. The Cardinals have seen Isringhausen tank, Eckstein and Edmonds battle injury, and their rotation diminish to dependence on Jeff Weaver. They still have Scott Rolen. They still have Chris Carpenter, and they still have Albert Pujols. But the Padres have Chris Young, Jake Peavy, Woody Williams, David Wells as starters, and a dependable back end of the bullpen. Pitching gets you through the postseason, so I'd go with the Pads.

Season series: 4-2 Padres

Starters
Carpenter vs Peavy
Suppan vs Young
TBA vs TBA

Prediction: Padres in 4

So my predictions for what you'll see next week are:

Dodgers at Padres
Twins at Yankees

The most exciting game to watch will be Thursday night's game, simply because it is the two lead pitchers of the Atlanta dynasty duking it out against each other.

Labels: MLB