Because I Can

Barry Bonds signed a $15.8 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, much to the amusement of anyone that is not a Giants fan. There was some stalling, though, in the gap from when it was agreed on and when it was signed. Bonds has some rather special circumstances, though.

For one thing, he tested positive for amphetamines last year. In the course of that, he blamed a teammate for the substance - a very Bonds-like thing to do but despicable nonetheless.
Bonds is also an admitted steroid user, having claimed before a grand jury he thought he was getting "flaxseed oil" from his trainer. It is very possible, then that he could be indicted not only on some drug charges, but on charges of perjury as well.

We already knew that, but what is particularly interesting is that Bonds' contract contained an escape clause for the Giants in the event that he was indicted. Major League Baseball rejected the contract, apparently to save the Giants. Here is Bonds' agent Jeff Borris.

Borris said that the additional language in Bonds' contract would be unenforceable if the matter ever was litigated because baseball's collective bargaining agreement would take precedence. Because of that, Borris said the inclusion of the added provision is meaningless.

"Although it is not my policy to comment on the specifics of an individual player's contract, the reporting that Barry will allow the Giants to get out of his contract if he is indicted on the federal steroid investigation is inaccurate," he said. "The collective bargaining agreement governs the work relationship between the owners and players, not the Giants' unilateral assertions."

From this we can conclude that Brian Sabean's IQ is a bit short of Bonds' single-season home run record. I mean, seriously, if it turns out that it's no big deal and that part of the contract is invalid, was Sabean tricked into thinking it would hold up? And in such an event, would he think he could get away with such a thing?

One comparison which could potentially be drawn by the MLBPA is Kobe Bryant, and how he played despite the rape trial going on. Of course, there was nothing in Bryant's contract about rape indictments, nor did Bryant have a reputation as a rapist beforehand, so that weakens the analogy. After all, Bonds' head got bigger - literally.

The saving grace for San Francisco is that Bud Selig rejected the deal. The question is whether or not the Giants will continue to cave, or what other concessions will have to be made to get the contract signed, because this is a very stupid deal. I don't know if they're without a choice because they agreed in principle or something, but either way, that's just screwy.

Labels: Economic Stuff, MLB

If you don't play fantasy baseball, then you should. It will teach you a whole lot about major league baseball, moreso than you would have thought. Most significantly, you will learn that there are more good players than you knew. It can also teach you a bit about the game, like the importance of WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched).

A good fantasy team is not the same as a good baseball team, and there are different things to keep in mind. But there are still several tips as to how to have a good fantasy baseball team.

1) Depth. While it's important to get your superstars early in the opening rounds, don't forget the importance of having players that get the job done all the way down. You get a few utility players, so this is tricky. Pitching depth is key too, and that can also be hard.

2) Know what stats a player can control. A pitcher will generally be consistent with IP and K numbers generally. WHIP is also not out of their control entirely, although it is somewhat. But stats such as ERA, Wins, and Saves depend on the team. ERA factors in defense; there's more to good defense than just not bobbling the ball. Wins and saves are hugely depenent on team factors. The offense has to put up more runs than the other team, which can be nasty for a pitcher on a team like Tampa Bay, and defense has a lot more to do with run prevention than one might thing. Saves require a save situation, which means that the game has to end with that team up by 1-3 runs.

For hitters, AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB can vary too. SB varies on opposing catchers and pitchers as well as that player's manager, but otherwise is generally consistent. Home Runs can be consistent too, as can average. Runs and RBI, though, depend on batting order. A player moving from batting 3rd to batting 4th, for example, will score fewer runs but will likely have more Runs Batted In. Further, players whose teammates are more likely to get on base get more RBI, because there are more guys on in front of them.


3) Oppurtunity Costs. In the draft, remember to pick players based on how useful they'll be to you. If you draft Albert Pujols in the first round instead of Chase Utley, for example, you'll get a better overall player. But remember that you have available slots based on position, so your second base slot will not be nearly as good, whereas you could wait a couple rounds and still get reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau. Know which positions have more depth than others; there are lots of good first basemen and outfielders, but not so many catchers or second basemen. As for pitchers, starters carry more weight because they pitch more innings, so get really good starters; better to get Johan Santana and Brad Lidge than K-Rod and Jeff Weaver.


4) Free agents. There are going to be plenty of players nobody has on their team, and they may be good. People may have not noticed them, or they just got promoted, or they might have just been injured. Look them up, and maybe shuffle your lineup. Players can be streaky, though, so be careful.

5) Look for good overall. I'd take Fernando Rodney over Todd Jones 7 days a week because he'll give me a better ERA, WHIP and K count, even if he doesn't do saves.

6) Don't play favorites. You might like a player or they might be on your favorite team, but if they're sucking, drop 'em.

Pujols is the best overall, but because of the comparative value, I'd be flipping a coin between Chase Utley and Johan Santana for my first overall pick. Daisuke Matsuzaka is intruiging. The DH utility spots are few, but there are few good DHs to go for. David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome are still up there. Frank Thomas may be lower on the totem pole, although Piazza may still be eligible as a catcher, and if so still a good catcher to have.

Labels: Fantasy, MLB

Update on player contracts.

Labels: MLB

A friend of mine commented that he likes to check my blog to see what I have to say, but isn't as interested in a lot of the sports stuff. I have tried to post a lot of non-sports items, but they never come to fruition. The fact is that the other posts take longer to write because they require a whole lot more thought. Additionally, I always like to link to other sites, and this doesn't go over too well because I leave those windows open. Adding that altogether, my computer usually can't handle what I want to do with my web browser, so I generally have to control-alt-delete and close out the whole program, thus causing me to lose the entire post.

The moral of the story is that I need to write my blog posts in Word first before I post them online, because Word won't crash on me like that. I'll work on that one.

Labels: About the Blog, Economic Stuff, MLB

Well, not a whole lot to choose from, even after the non-tenders. Here are your choices (note: I will update this when I hear about any changes):

Catcher
Toby Hall - the only guy on the list that represents more than just a backup, as he was the starter for Tampa Bay previously. A few decent backups remain on the list, though.

First Base
Craig Wilson - a right hander good here or in the outfield, as long as he gets some playing time
Shea Hillenbrand - another right hander, acceptable hitting first baseman
Doug Mientkevitz - noted more for glove work

Second Base
Marcus Giles - the non-tender from Atlanta would be a fine choice for any interested team.
Ronnie Belliard - he's got World Series experience
Mark Loretta - getting a bit old, but still has some use left

Third Base
Aubrey Huff - hey, we've got a hitter here. Good for 25ish home runs, a good 5 hitter to pick up.

Shortstop
nobody but backups and scrap. Please check your organizations, or ask the Dodgers for one.

Outfield
Craig Wilson - someone give him some playing time!
Trot Nixon - injury risk, but a good lefty bat
David Newhan - interesting non-tender, possibly has some potential
Bernie Williams - proved he's still capable of playing everyday
Steve Finley - 2004 centerfield gold glover. If you're counting on Hunter or Jones being available for 2008 and you need someone for the meantime, then why not.
Jeromy Burnitz - a "proven slugger" who's not much at hitting for average or plate discipline. If Francouer did not improve and just got fat and worse defensively, this is what he would be.

Starting Pitchers
Barry Zito - $$$$
Roger Clemens - ???????????????
Jeff Weaver - finally due for his 4 year $40 million contract after the postseason, or is he?
Mark Mulder - injury problems last year, but can still be good
Chan Ho Park - done with his contract from the Rangers, homer prone guy strikes out people
Ramon Ortiz - almost had a no hitter, and World Series experience
Tony Armas - was part of the trade that brought Pedro Martinez to Boston
Aaron Sele - did well for LA as a NRI to Spring Training

Relievers
Keith Foulke
Chris Reitsma
Doug Brocail
JC Romero
and some guys to invite to Spring Training


The Skinny
Starting pitching is not too thin for the middle to end of the rotation. Baltimore killed the reliever market. Very few hitters left.

UPDATE: The Giants paid a whole lot for Zito.

UPDATE 2: Basically nothing left. Except Jeff Weaver. Just like last year.

Labels: MLB

ESPN Reports the following offers regarding Matsuzaka

Boston - $48 million over 6 years

Boras - $66 million over 6 years

That translates to Boston saying Matsuzaka is worth $16.5 million per year over 6 years and Boras saying, no, $19.5 million per year. These are both a good bit lower than what I reported earlier, no doubt showing that a deal is more possible, and that the Red Sox are idiots for not taking the $11 million a year counter offer. Barry Zito is worth $15 or $16 million in this free agent market, at a bare minimum, although I'm projecting 6 years, $120 million. It is no stretch to say that Matsuzaka would outperform Zito in the majors, particularly since Matsuzaka will be less in decline; a better comparison may be Carlos Zambrano, who hits the free agent market next year. Nonetheless, Because at age 27-32 Matsuzaka will deliver the best of his playing years, it would be foolish to say he's not worth what it would cost for Zito. Additionally, Boston jumping into the Zito hunt would only drive up the left-hander's price, which would almost certianly push that to $20 million a year or so. Boston would be foolish not to go with the $11 million a year offer; after all, for the purposes of the luxury tax, it's much cheaper. Additionally, Boras will take a lot of flack if Matsuzaka is not signed, and since he represents Zito, he can get his revenge there. So Boston will parade a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon and Lester while trading off Clement. When you consider that Schilling will likely retire after this year, Boston should go ahead with it.

Labels: MLB

The Red Sox have until Thursday night, and Matsuzaka doesn't look like he'll be signed. As it stands, the question is what Matsuzaka's annual value is. This assumes of course that his value is constant over time. So here's what it is for a 3-10 year contract:

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
15	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	Years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$2,033,333	$6,100,000
	4	$2,225,000	$8,900,000
	5	$4,780,000	$23,900,000
	6	$6,483,333	$38,900,000
	7	$7,700,000	$53,900,000
	8	$8,612,500	$68,900,000
	9	$9,322,222	$83,900,000
	10	$9,890,000	$98,900,000

Clearly, not a $15 million pitcher given how commonly Japanese players get 3 year deals. Let's say $20 million.

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
20	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$2,966,667	$8,900,000
	4	$7,225,000	$28,900,000
	5	$9,780,000	$48,900,000
	6	$11,483,333	$68,900,000
	7	$12,700,000	$88,900,000
	8	$13,612,500	$108,900,000
	9	$14,322,222	$128,900,000
	10	$14,890,000	$148,900,000

We notice here that all the numbers are in the black. My guess is that this is where Boston sees Matsuzaka's value. But let's try $25 million.

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
25	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$7,966,667	$23,900,000
	4	$12,225,000	$48,900,000
	5	$14,780,000	$73,900,000
	6	$16,483,333	$98,900,000
	7	$17,700,000	$123,900,000
	8	$18,612,500	$148,900,000
	9	$19,322,222	$173,900,000
	10	$19,890,000	$198,900,000

ESPN is saying Boras wants Zito money for Matsuzaka, particularly 6 years, $100 million. That seems like a bridgeable gap, but it clearly has huge implications for Matsuzaka. His salary nearly triples for a 3 year contract, and even for a 6 year contract there's a 43% difference. Keep in mind that the total cost here to Boston is only a 25% difference.

Boras would argue that with a rotation of Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, plus Wakefield and Clement, the Red Sox could easily find an NL suitor for Clement if they needed to shed salary and avoid the luxury tax. The ultimate leverage, though, would be based on what Matsuzaka would get next year. An MLB.com article said Matsuzaka could become a general free agent, and that would open him up to much higher salaries (although with a $2 million deal for 2007), but compare that to holding out with Luke Hochevar.

**********

Ultimately, the posting system as it was set up was flawed, as it was a sealed bid first-price auction. Teams would not bid their true value, but rather either bid very high to block, or bid just enough to get access and sign. What would have made more sense would have been better would be to bid in a sealed bid second-price auction. If you bid $50 million, you would pay up to that amount, but you would not actually have to spend that much, but only the second place bid, which might have been $32 million. Here's what Boston would offer Matsuzaka then:

32	Posting fee (millions)
20	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$9,333,333	$28,000,000
	4	$12,000,000	$48,000,000
	5	$13,600,000	$68,000,000
	6	$14,666,667	$88,000,000
	7	$15,428,571	$108,000,000
	8	$16,000,000	$128,000,000
	9	$16,444,444	$148,000,000
	10	$16,800,000	$168,000,000

This is much closer to what Boras is looking for. Realistically, teams would likely bid a bit more and teams looking for a high-priced block would need to price themselves so high that they may not be able to make a "good faith" effort to get the pitcher, causing the commissioner to intervene and nullify their bid. Perhaps the most interesting effect of this is that if the player went to New York, the Yankee Premium would not be absorbed by Matsuzaka, but rather by the posting team.

Labels: MLB

Baseball got a labor contract. Let's all cheer that they're guaranteed not to strike until at least 2011. Now, let's look at the specifics of this contract and comment on it:

Summary of MLBPA-Major League Baseball Labor Agreement
Term
1. Five-year labor contract.
2. Termination date - December 11, 2011.

I believe I just said that, but now you have the official press release version.

Revenue Sharing
1. Net transfer of revenue sharing plan will be the same as the current plan ($326 million in 2006). Net transfer amounts will continue to grow with revenue and changes in disparity.
2. Marginal tax rates for all recipients are reduced significantly through the use of a new central fund redistribution mechanism. Rates reduced to 31% from 40% (high revenue Clubs) and 48% (low revenue Clubs) under old agreement.
3. All Clubs face the same marginal rate for first time.
4. Commissioner's Discretionary Fund will continue at $10 million per year, with cap of $3 million per Club per year.
5. Provision requiring revenue sharing recipients to spend receipts to improve on-field performance retained with modifications.

There's the revenue sharing issue, which is baseball's way of trying to encourage teams to be more equitable in sharing resources.

Policy number (5) is the biggest sticking point with the high revenue clubs, the idea that a team could get $30 million in revenue sharing and have a $15 million payroll. I have to wonder what the penalties for breaking this rule are.

Competitive Balance Tax
1. Competitive Balance Tax structure from 2002 agreement is continued.
2. Rates will continue at 22 ½ % for Clubs over the threshold the first time, 30% for Clubs over the threshold the second time and 40% for Clubs over threshold the third time. 3. Clubs that paid 40% in 2006 will face 40% rate in 2007.
4. Thresholds reset to $148 million in 2007, $155 million in 2008, $162 million in 2009, $170 million in 2010 and $178 million in 2011.

This is part of how they get revenue to share. The payroll threshold, which has really only applied to the Yankees and Red Sox, rises, for the luxury tax. This is where the super-bloated payroll starts to hurt, as that $200 million payroll really costs the Yankees $80 million. Nothing exciting here.

We are also told the "Debt Service Rule" from 2002 has been retained, so here's what that says:

Debt
A team may not have more debt than 10 times EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization), except that a team that has moved into a newly constructed ballpark within the past 10 years may not have more debt than 15 times EBIDTA. There will be a three-year grace period, during which the commissioner has the right to retain the debt service rule, fully implemented. If he so elects, the commissioner must revoke the 60-40 assets-to-debt ratio rule. If he doesn't want to revoke the 60-40 rule, the debt-service rule becomes fully implemented.

This says that ballclubs have to pay off those gigantic loans used to build stadiums, and they can't ruin a franchise by burying it in debt. Now let's get to the interesting stuff.

Amateur Draft
1. Clubs that fail to sign first or second round draft pick will receive the same pick in the subsequent draft as compensation. Club that fails to sign a third round pick will receive a sandwich pick between rounds three and four in the subsequent draft as compensation.
2. Period of time before a Player must be protected from the Rule 5 Draft is changed from three or four years from first minor league season to four or five years from year of signing.
3. Signing deadline of August 15 for draft picks other than college seniors.

This entire section is huge, and deserves to be addressed point by point.
1) Failure to sign a first or second round draft get the same pick next year as a compensation. This provides not only equity, but improves the club's position, particularly if the next year is poised to be a much better draft year.
2) This makes a difference because the younger players not yet developed have more time to do so, especially for teams that have them for the purpose of depth when they have an injury-prone major league roster.
3) This is the biggest part of the draft rules. A player has to sign by August 15 instead of by next June. I don't know if he becomes eligible to be signed at large after this or not, and in that case his wage would rise because the future price would rise because the monopsony would be lifted faster. I also don't know what this will mean if securing a visa for Canadian draft picks gets harder.

Draft Choice Compensation
1. Type C free agents eliminated in 2006
2. Also in 2006, compensation for type B players becomes indirect (sandwich pick) as opposed to direct compensation from signing Club.
3. Effective 2007, Type A players limited to top 20 percent of each position (down from 30 percent) and Type B players become 21 percent - 40 percent at each position (rather than 31 percent - 50 percent).
4. Salary arbitration offer and acceptance dates move to December 1 and December 7

Now that teams have to spend revenue sharing money on payroll, this is set up so that their draft won't have to suffer. This is also good for the players, because the cost of losing them increases, so teams have greater incentive to retain them for the next year. For those of you not keeping score, type A free agents are the ones that get you a first round draft pick, and type B give you a second round pick.

Benefit Plan
1. Players Benefit Plan continued with maximum allowable benefit under IRS rules.
2. $154.5 million average annual contribution.
3. Improved benefits for some retired players.

Minimum Salary
1. Major League: $380,000 in 2007, $390,000 in 2008 and $400,000 in 2009, COLA in 2011.
2. Minor League: $60,000 in 2007, $62,500 in 2008, $65,000 in 2009.
3. New minimum for first time roster players of 50% of minor league minimum.
4. Maximum cut rule applicable to split contracts reduced to 60% from 80%.

Under salary, that just means you can make $30k on a cup of coffee. Otherwise, nothing that interesting here. These guys make money.

Free Agency
1. Eliminate December 7, December 19, January 8 and May 1 deadlines for free agents.
2. Tender Date - December 12
3. Eliminate right to demand a trade for all new multi-year contracts.

Other
1. Home-field advantage in World Series to League that wins the All-Star Game.
2. Drug program continues.
3. Settlement of 40 plus grievances and disputes.
4. No contraction during term of agreement.

The free agency moves are particularly interesting because of the types of deadlines removed. The January 8 and May 1 deadlines in particular are huge, as they signify that now a club doesn't risk losing the rights to negotiate with their player just because they don't re-sign him by early January.

The agreement is bold as far as allowing clubs to maintain and improve rosters, but the consequences for the draft remain to be seen.

Labels: MLB

So I say Tigers sweep, and then the Tigers play crappy baseball on Saturday. Just great.

Speaking of crappy, I can't get a picture, but I'm going to say right now that Kenny Rogers did not properly wipe his hand after going to the bathroom. He's the monkey pitcher; he flung poo. Rhymes with spitball.

Labels: MLB

Ok, so I picked the Mets in 7. At least I got 7, but the Cardinals won. And I picked the Tigers in 6, and they swept. So why bother?

You know what, I'm going with the Tigers. Because they have pitching everywhere. And they have a good bottom of the lineup. Tigers sweep.

Labels: MLB

Well, if you read my post last week, you'll notice that none of my picks advanced. That's right, none. Zip, zero, zilch, nada.

So we're left with these two serieses

Mets vs Cardinals

Ok, Mets. They have the lineup, and neither team has the pitching, except Carpenter for the Cards. I don't care how many squeeze bunts Larussa drops down, the Mets can power their way through.

prediction: Mets in 6

A's vs Tigers

I really don't know here. Detroit has the best defense for a staff of groundball pitchers, but Sean Casey is their 3 hitter. They have a good bottom of the lineup, though. The A's on the other hand have 3 big power guys in Thomas and Swisher, and a lineup that does a good job getting on base. This one is close to call, but I think the final blow will be Billy Beane facing down his demons as the A's are shut down by Jeremy Bonderman.

prediction: Tigers in 7

Labels: Dodgers, MLB

That's right. The postseason matchups have been announced. And ladies and gents, here they are, with commentary.

American League
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Jim Leyland's bunch go up against the nastiest lineup ever. Seriously, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada are at the bottom of the lineup. That's just sick. Sure the rotation's not much, but everyone's healthy just in time for the postseason, and they actually made it there despite missing Shef and Matsui. The Tigers have good defense and groundball pitchers, so that will continue to work to their advantage. Still, the Yankees look like the juggernaut.

Season Series: 5-2 Yankees

Starters:
Robertson vs Wang
Verlander vs Mussina
Johnson vs Rogers

Prediction: Yankees in 4


Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Wow, two teams that really picked it up later on in the season. The A's have been hot in the second half, but the Twins have been hotter. Shooting all the way to the top in a short run, they will be nasty to beat. The A's real weapons are their pitching, all the way through. The Twins have great pitching as well, particularly in Santana and Nathan, though if you look at their regular season numbers, you'll see how much better Liriano made them. There are some significant bats for the Twins as they've got batting leader Joe Mauer, as well as power bats Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau. The A's feature Nick Swisher and future hall-of-famer Frank Thomas.

Season series: 6-4 Minnesota

Starters:
Zito vs Santana
Haren vs Bonser
Garza vs Loaiza

Prediction: Minnesota in 5

National League
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
As far as lineups go, the Mets have the advantage of having the most home run power, but that isn't hard against the Dodgers. What makes this difficult for the Dodgers, though, is that the Mets have speed to match them. The Mets have speedsters in Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Chavez, while the Dodgers have them in Furcal, Lofton, Lugo, and Martin (yes, the catcher). The Dodgers have been more dynamic in making changes to their pitching, though, as nobody in their bullpen started the year in the majors, and neither has their catcher. The Dodgers also upgraded their rotation by picking up Greg Maddux, while the Mets added Guillermo Mota to replace Duaner Sanchez. The Dodgers as a team seem to have the most balance, though. Their lineup, in particular, is well balanced with pretty good hitters 1-8 (unless Lugo starts). In the second half, it is worth noting that the Dodgers are hotter in the second half, although the Mets weren't a bad second half team either. Most critically, though, may be rotation depth. The Mets have El Duque and Tom Glavine for the front of the rotation, but the Dodgers have not only Lowe and Maddux, but also options with Penny, Billingsley, and Kuo, while the Mets have Steve Traschel, John Maine, and Oliver Perez.

Season series: 4-3 Mets

Lowe vs El Duque
Maddux vs Glavine
TBA vs TBA

Prediction: Dodgers in 4

St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

The St. Louis Cardinals would have been the favorites in this series for the past few years, and the beginning of this year. Things have changed, though. The Padres got better. They made some nice offseason moves, acquired guys who will make the future bright, and got that Piazza fellow too. The Cardinals have seen Isringhausen tank, Eckstein and Edmonds battle injury, and their rotation diminish to dependence on Jeff Weaver. They still have Scott Rolen. They still have Chris Carpenter, and they still have Albert Pujols. But the Padres have Chris Young, Jake Peavy, Woody Williams, David Wells as starters, and a dependable back end of the bullpen. Pitching gets you through the postseason, so I'd go with the Pads.

Season series: 4-2 Padres

Starters
Carpenter vs Peavy
Suppan vs Young
TBA vs TBA

Prediction: Padres in 4

So my predictions for what you'll see next week are:

Dodgers at Padres
Twins at Yankees

The most exciting game to watch will be Thursday night's game, simply because it is the two lead pitchers of the Atlanta dynasty duking it out against each other.

Labels: MLB

Major League Records from 8/1 - 9/20:

American League
East
Yankees____31-19
BlueJays____23-24
Orioles_____18-27
RedSox_____18-30
D-Rays_____14-36

Central
Twins______29-18
Indians_____25-22
WhiteSox ___23-25
Tigers ______21-26
Royals______21-26

West
A's ________32-13
Angels______28-19
Rangers_____25-22
Mariners____21-26

National League
East
Phillies_____30-18
Mets______29-18
Marlins ____26-21
Braves_____26-22
Nationals___19-27

Central
Pirates_____25-21
Astros_____24-22
Cardinals___22-24
Brewers____19-27
Reds______19-28
Cubs______19-29

West
Dodgers____29-18
Giants_____24-21
Padres_____24-22
Rockies____20-27
D-Backs____18-28

Labels: MLB

Tomorrow it turns to September, but for many teams, the season is already over. While some teams try to make waiver trades for relatively useless players (when a guy who's retiring next month is the top prize, that's bad), the offseason has some highlights available, particularly among position players. Truly quality players are scarce, but here are the best guys out there, from the after 2006 Free Agent List at MLB4u.com

Outfielders

Dave Roberts, Padres - Roberts has had an outstanding year. His speed has never really been a question mark, but his on-base percentage has been troublesome. His isolated patience (OBP-BA) has been rather consistent, around .070-.080, so it's largely a function of a jump in batting average. He's not a power hitter, but is an excellent leadoff man with great speed. Paul DePodesta's presence in the Padres' front office would certainly arouse suspicion that Roberts would not be long for the Padres organization, particularly since he practically gave him away in 2004 for a 29 year old minor leaguer. That he's played left field recently would certainly get the attention of the Atlanta Braves, who have not been strong at that position and could use a leadoff man.

Alfonso Soriano, Nationals - The question is whether Washington will build their franchise around this superstar. He seems to have adjusted well, but he would require a no-trade clause and a lot of money, and it is unlikely the Lerners would blow the Nats' payroll wide open so soon. Don't expect him to be a marketable second baseman, because of his defense, but he's a plus defensive outfielder because he can actually use his speed and monster arm without having to charge ground balls as often.

Jose Guillen, Nationals - Anyone want to pick up an outfielder who came off a terrible year and Tommy John surgery? Well, he'll be cheap because of the uncertainty, and he can deliver some power. One year deal likely, but not a bad option for someone who needs a little something extra in the outfield, especially someone hoping that he still can hit for a bit of power.

Carlos Lee, Rangers - Don't know if he'll stay with Texas or not. Looking at it now, if any of the players they trade for him turn out worthwhile they'll feel really stupid as their postseason plans backfired. Lee has mysteriously had a relative power slump, averaging a homer every 43.3 at bats as a Ranger, down from one every 13.9 at bats. It's amazing what not facing NL Central pitching will do, as that division alone has the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs to go up against. Someone looking for a guy to whack a few out of the park might be interested. He has some decent speed on the basepaths, too.

Frank Catalanotto, Blue Jays - Another lefty bat, a good overall hitter. His .316/.397/.460 line is not overwhelming, but certainly pretty good. The Blue Jays might keep him though, as he does have some use for that lineup. Not much of a speedster, though.

Kenny Lofton - If you want a platoon player lefty centerfielder with speed and a .300 bat, here ya go. Even at his age he's still producing, although his defense has gone from a + to a -.

Torii Hunter - $12 million is a lot of money, and that's how much the Twins would have to shell out to hold onto him. Don't know where he might end up.

Jim Edmonds - Interesting mainly to see if he calls it quits at age 36 or keeps going for a little longer, especially with the post-concussion syndrome.

Catchers

Bengie Molina - He's slow, and his OBP dropped this year to a weak .309, though his slugging is still decent. His CS % is fading, but who else are you gonna get?

Mike Piazza - He's old, and he's headed to the hall of fame, but he can still hit home runs. The Padres may not be as well off without him, given how hard it is to hit for power in that ballpark.

First Base

Nomar Garicaparra - He's played the position well, and can stay healthy longer, or at least it seems that way. He will regress this year, probably ending with a .290-.300 BA because of a nagging injury, which will heal in the offseason. Not a power guy in the sense of hitting home runs, but he's a line drive hitter with an .889 OPS. Is also a defensive plus player at first. Will likely be available, though, due to the improvements James Loney has made.

Shea Hillenbrand - yep, it's a thin market. Hillenbrand is certainly an "extra bat" type guy, not a guy to bank on.

Craig Wilson - Will someone please give the poor guy some playing time? He's an outfielder too, and with moderate power.

Second Base

Ray Durham - Kind of old, but he's got some pop in his bat, and you don't get that a whole lot at second base. Offensively, he's the best second baseman on the free agent market unless you count Soriano.

Shortstop

Julio Lugo - While he's shown limited value as a Dodger, he's a pretty good offensive shortstop. Good speed, a little bit of power. He's versatile, but he won't take to playing other positions easily. The best shortstop available as a free agent unless you count Nomar.

Third Base

Pedro Feliz - The guy is the most important guy on the Giants offense other than Durham with 85 RBI and 21 HR. San Francisco would be wise to retain him, though the Padres may get in a bidding war in their quest to get a third baseman.

Aubrey Huff - Available in the offseason, he's put up decent power, although he's not quite the Aubrey Huff of 2003.

***********

Another post coming later on which teams will have holes, and I'll address pitchers eventually too.

Labels: MLB

Jim Bowden was not sober when he was driving the other night. No word though on whether the organization will punish him for this offseason's TUI - trading under the influence.

Barry Bonds had a tube of toothpaste thrown at him, only to have a security guard take it away immediately. Bonds is enough of a joker, though, that he might start saying "no comment" with a British accent. "I never used toothpaste or put any other performance enhancing substances on my teeth. Good show." Well, I think it would be funny.

Labels: MLB

From the looks of things, the Florida Marlins are likely moving to either Las Vegas, Nevada or Portland, Oregon. They want a baseball-only stadium, and frankly they do not have the following in Florida for the city of Miami to build them one.

If they want an exciting stadium, they should put it in Vegas. They could do all kinds of crazy things, like have the monorail take you right to it (a la Disneyworld), have a high-capacity dome, sell reasonably-priced concessions, etc. And they could play in Trump stadium. Given its tourist attraction status, the Vegas location would benefit greatly from a more gimmicky stadium, and would thus be even more fun to watch.

In Portland, though, they could not only develop a greater following (with a larger overall population). And the city has proven they can support a professional sports franchise with the Blazers, whereas Vegas currently holds the Dodgers' AAA affiliate. Also, Portland's location could give a view of the Willamette - or moving away from central Portland, Columbia - river, where such an option is not so easy in Vegas, if a waterside view is prefered.

Regardless, the team will no longer remain in the National League's "East" division, save for a farce similar to that which put the Atlanta Braves in the West division until the advent of the Central division, but would move to the National League West. The obvious initial solution then to merely put the Pittsburgh Pirates in the East, since they are east of Atlanta. This still leaves 5 teams in the East, 5 in the Central, and 6 in the West. But that would be odd with the American League having 5 teams in the East, 5 in the Central, and only 4 in the West.

The revolutionary, and yet blatantly obvious solution is to put the Colorado Rockies in the American League, West division. What is blatantly obvious about this is that the Rockies, with their mountain air, have a great hitters' park, and the American League caters more to offense with the Designated Hitter position. What is revolutionary about this, though, is that it will force the league to schedule interleague play thoughout the season, since there would then be an odd number of teams in each league.

To put this in perspective, the Dodgers are scheduled for 5 3-game interleague series in 2006, most of which are in the months right before the all-star break, which would be 15 games. This new schedule would create the need for either 4 or 6 interleague series, and for the purposes of this idea, it will be 6. This will create 2 3-day stretches where each team plays in interleague. In each occurance, the pairing will be the same, with all NL teams getting home field advantage the first time and all AL teams getting it the second time. Then there will be one weekend in which 9 teams will play interleague series while 6 series between major intra-division rivals take place, which can be known as "super rivalry weekend." These rivalries will vary year to year, but will always include Yankees-Red Sox and Dodgers-Giants.

Summarizing, the current layout looks like this:

National League

East
Braves
Mets
Marlins
Nationals
Phillies

Central
Astros
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

West _ _
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Rockies

American League

East
Blue Jays
Devil Rays
Orioles
Red Sox
Yankees

Central
Indians
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox

West
Angels
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers

Whereas my new proposal would look more like this:

National League

East ____________ Central _____________ West _ _
Braves__________ Astros ____________ Diamondbacks
Mets ___________Brewers ____________Dodgers
Nationals________Cardinals____________Giants
Phillies__________ Cubs ___________Marlins (new name likely)
Pirates __________Reds ______________Padres

American League

East_____ ________ Central _____________ West _ _
Blue Jays _________Indians ____________ _Angels
Devil Rays ________Royals ______________Athletics
Orioles __________Tigers _____________ _Mariners
Red Sox __________Twins ______________Rangers
Yankees _________White Sox ____________Rockies

Each team will play 21 games against each of the other teams in their division, 6 games against each of the other teams in the league, and 18 total interleague games, consisting of at least one series against each team in the corresponding division of the opposite league. For example, the Yankees would play the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Pirates in interleague play. To recap, that is

Division Play 84 games
League Play 60 games
+ Interleague Play 18 games
Total 162 games

Which adds up to a full season.

Granted, there are winners and losers in this deal. The losers would be the four original NL West teams, the four original AL West teams, and arguably the Pirates (although they would no longer have the Cubs, Astros and Cardinals, the Braves, Mets, and Phillies, and maybe even Nationals might give them a hard time). The winners of this, by a greater margin would be the AL East, whichever new city gets the Marlins, and the Colorado Rockies, who would be given a chance to be legitimate competitors. Fans of baseball, though, would also see a more competitive major league system (except possibly the NL East, with the Pirates and Nationals as questionable contenders), an overall improvement in the division setup, and the home to a DH who's close to retirement but just not quite ready to go yet (Frank Thomas? Mike Piazza? Larry Walker's return from retirement?), especially one who wants to work on a home run total.

So when the Marlins decide they want to move West, I will be sending a letter to Bud Selig's office.

Labels: MLB