Sunday, January 21, 2007
Fantasy Baseball for 2007
If you don't play fantasy baseball, then you should. It will teach you a whole lot about major league baseball, moreso than you would have thought. Most significantly, you will learn that there are more good players than you knew. It can also teach you a bit about the game, like the importance of WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched).
A good fantasy team is not the same as a good baseball team, and there are different things to keep in mind. But there are still several tips as to how to have a good fantasy baseball team.
1) Depth. While it's important to get your superstars early in the opening rounds, don't forget the importance of having players that get the job done all the way down. You get a few utility players, so this is tricky. Pitching depth is key too, and that can also be hard.
2) Know what stats a player can control. A pitcher will generally be consistent with IP and K numbers generally. WHIP is also not out of their control entirely, although it is somewhat. But stats such as ERA, Wins, and Saves depend on the team. ERA factors in defense; there's more to good defense than just not bobbling the ball. Wins and saves are hugely depenent on team factors. The offense has to put up more runs than the other team, which can be nasty for a pitcher on a team like Tampa Bay, and defense has a lot more to do with run prevention than one might thing. Saves require a save situation, which means that the game has to end with that team up by 1-3 runs.
For hitters, AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB can vary too. SB varies on opposing catchers and pitchers as well as that player's manager, but otherwise is generally consistent. Home Runs can be consistent too, as can average. Runs and RBI, though, depend on batting order. A player moving from batting 3rd to batting 4th, for example, will score fewer runs but will likely have more Runs Batted In. Further, players whose teammates are more likely to get on base get more RBI, because there are more guys on in front of them.
3) Oppurtunity Costs. In the draft, remember to pick players based on how useful they'll be to you. If you draft Albert Pujols in the first round instead of Chase Utley, for example, you'll get a better overall player. But remember that you have available slots based on position, so your second base slot will not be nearly as good, whereas you could wait a couple rounds and still get reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau. Know which positions have more depth than others; there are lots of good first basemen and outfielders, but not so many catchers or second basemen. As for pitchers, starters carry more weight because they pitch more innings, so get really good starters; better to get Johan Santana and Brad Lidge than K-Rod and Jeff Weaver.
4) Free agents. There are going to be plenty of players nobody has on their team, and they may be good. People may have not noticed them, or they just got promoted, or they might have just been injured. Look them up, and maybe shuffle your lineup. Players can be streaky, though, so be careful.
5) Look for good overall. I'd take Fernando Rodney over Todd Jones 7 days a week because he'll give me a better ERA, WHIP and K count, even if he doesn't do saves.
6) Don't play favorites. You might like a player or they might be on your favorite team, but if they're sucking, drop 'em.
Pujols is the best overall, but because of the comparative value, I'd be flipping a coin between Chase Utley and Johan Santana for my first overall pick. Daisuke Matsuzaka is intruiging. The DH utility spots are few, but there are few good DHs to go for. David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome are still up there. Frank Thomas may be lower on the totem pole, although Piazza may still be eligible as a catcher, and if so still a good catcher to have.
A good fantasy team is not the same as a good baseball team, and there are different things to keep in mind. But there are still several tips as to how to have a good fantasy baseball team.
1) Depth. While it's important to get your superstars early in the opening rounds, don't forget the importance of having players that get the job done all the way down. You get a few utility players, so this is tricky. Pitching depth is key too, and that can also be hard.
2) Know what stats a player can control. A pitcher will generally be consistent with IP and K numbers generally. WHIP is also not out of their control entirely, although it is somewhat. But stats such as ERA, Wins, and Saves depend on the team. ERA factors in defense; there's more to good defense than just not bobbling the ball. Wins and saves are hugely depenent on team factors. The offense has to put up more runs than the other team, which can be nasty for a pitcher on a team like Tampa Bay, and defense has a lot more to do with run prevention than one might thing. Saves require a save situation, which means that the game has to end with that team up by 1-3 runs.
For hitters, AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB can vary too. SB varies on opposing catchers and pitchers as well as that player's manager, but otherwise is generally consistent. Home Runs can be consistent too, as can average. Runs and RBI, though, depend on batting order. A player moving from batting 3rd to batting 4th, for example, will score fewer runs but will likely have more Runs Batted In. Further, players whose teammates are more likely to get on base get more RBI, because there are more guys on in front of them.
3) Oppurtunity Costs. In the draft, remember to pick players based on how useful they'll be to you. If you draft Albert Pujols in the first round instead of Chase Utley, for example, you'll get a better overall player. But remember that you have available slots based on position, so your second base slot will not be nearly as good, whereas you could wait a couple rounds and still get reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau. Know which positions have more depth than others; there are lots of good first basemen and outfielders, but not so many catchers or second basemen. As for pitchers, starters carry more weight because they pitch more innings, so get really good starters; better to get Johan Santana and Brad Lidge than K-Rod and Jeff Weaver.
4) Free agents. There are going to be plenty of players nobody has on their team, and they may be good. People may have not noticed them, or they just got promoted, or they might have just been injured. Look them up, and maybe shuffle your lineup. Players can be streaky, though, so be careful.
5) Look for good overall. I'd take Fernando Rodney over Todd Jones 7 days a week because he'll give me a better ERA, WHIP and K count, even if he doesn't do saves.
6) Don't play favorites. You might like a player or they might be on your favorite team, but if they're sucking, drop 'em.
Pujols is the best overall, but because of the comparative value, I'd be flipping a coin between Chase Utley and Johan Santana for my first overall pick. Daisuke Matsuzaka is intruiging. The DH utility spots are few, but there are few good DHs to go for. David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome are still up there. Frank Thomas may be lower on the totem pole, although Piazza may still be eligible as a catcher, and if so still a good catcher to have.
# posted by StolenMonkey86 @ 8:13 PM 
