Saturday, November 11, 2006
Dodgers - JD Did
JD Drew flew the coup. Drew has the opt-out option in his contract, so he flew the coup, leaving drastic implications for the Dodgers in the future.
First of all, they are now seeking two bats for the lineup, specifically a 3 and 4 hitter. Given budget constraints, Colletti decides that he keeps Maddux and goes for that rotation.
The Dodgers also need two starting outfielders for next year, so it goes without saying that Aramis Ramirez is certaily not a priority. With Wilson Betemit, and Andy Laroche at AAA, why would Ned Colletti want to get another third baseman, especially when Betemit could be close enough for a lot less money. There are basically 6 guys who could get the job done available on the market. In parentheses, their 2004-2006 OBP/SLG and my estimate for 2007 home runs.
1) Alfonso Soriano, 31, Free Agent (.327/.519, 35). ( He's a power/speed guy, so he will be productive for the length of his contract. He will also get better in the outfield.
2) Carlos Lee, 30, Free Agent (.350/.517, 33). He's got a little speed, and consistent power, average with the glove.
3) Pat Burrell, 30, Phillies (.382/.488, 29). He's owed $27 million over the next two years. That said, he's the only guy listed here that comes close to JD Drew's OBP, yet he delivers 25-30 homer type power, and he's more durable. He'll need convincing to come over, but it can be done. Phillies will require picking up his entire salary, and probably a pitcher or two. Beimel will factor in.
4) Vernon Wells, 28, Blue Jays (.339/.493, 28) He's cheap next year, but he'll need to be extended for a few years. He's a good centerfielder with 25-30 homer power, although with subpar OBP. Also a good doubles hitter. A centerfielder, so bye Matt Kemp, and likely Hu too.
5) Adam Dunn, 27, Reds (.380/.543, 42). He's owed $10 million, and his option is not valid, so an extention would be necessary. Strikes out a lot, which leads him to hit for terrible average, but walks a lot too, which gives him good OBP. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard. Defense is not a strong suit. The Reds are odd to please; they like guys who don't strike out a lot, don't care about OBP, and they love middle relievers. Joe Beimel and Mark Hendrickson along with another prospect, probably, will do it. Krivsky is asking for it.
6) Andruw Jones, 30, Braves (.345/.532, 40). He's owed a bit, and in the last year of a contract that will be dwarfed next year. An excellent player, gold glover and cleanup hitter. Decent OBP, 40 homer power. Will be the most costly, not just financially, but in terms of personnel, and any deal for him will definitely involve Broxton and Kemp.
My guess is that Colletti goes for one of the above, though two is a possibility. Going for two, though, would almost certainly rule out even the possibility of getting a big name pitcher. Assuming that Jason Schmidt is in the cards, though, here are some free agents that Ned Colletti will consider adding as that other bat:
Nomar Garicaparra, 33 (.355/.483, 17). Nomar was already on the team, a fan favorite, a great player, and certainly serviceable. He's capable of more than these predictions, but that would be satisfactory. Even signing him to 3 years wouldn't be bad if he plays in the outfield or he's the new second baseman once Kent leaves. Best 3-hitter out of the group.
Luis Gonzalez, 39 (.358/.462, 20). Gonzo was the favorite player of none other than Andre Everett Ethier, so it is not at all a stretch that Colletti would want to add such a role model. Gonzo would also be eligible for a 1 year contract, and can be brought back just in case Matt Kemp is not ready for 2008.
Cliff Floyd, 34 (.334/.466, 22). Floyd has had achilles problems, but can hit the ball pretty hard. Good enough likely for a 2 year deal.
Ryan Klesko, 35 (.377/.435, 13). Basically he's a spring training invite, guy who won't get $1million next year, if he's still playing.
Moises Alou, 41 (.373/.547, 26). He's still serviceable, but the question is how much he'll play. If given enough playing time, could be a decent middle-lineup bat.
Trot Nixon, 32 (.365/.435, 12). Has above average OBP, but frankly looks like too much of an injury risk, and demand for him at age 32 will be too high to try.
Jose Guillen, 31 (.347/.472, 24). Spring Training invite, because he just had Tommy John. Much less certain.
********************
That said, here are my rankings in order of preference of the top 6 guys:
Dunn
Jones
Burrell
Soriano
Lee
Wells
If LA gets any two of these, I'm thrilled and I say stick with the pitching we've got. If signing Barry Zito comes into play (possibly because Penny is traded), my order of preference for the other guys:
Nomar
Alou
Gonzo
Floyd
Guillen
because on second thought, I don't think Klesko or Nixon are what LA could use right now.
**************
The Dodgers lineup before:
Furcal
Loney
(help)
(help some more)
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Betemit
New lineup:
Furcal
Loney
Nomar
Dunn
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Betemit
First of all, they are now seeking two bats for the lineup, specifically a 3 and 4 hitter. Given budget constraints, Colletti decides that he keeps Maddux and goes for that rotation.
The Dodgers also need two starting outfielders for next year, so it goes without saying that Aramis Ramirez is certaily not a priority. With Wilson Betemit, and Andy Laroche at AAA, why would Ned Colletti want to get another third baseman, especially when Betemit could be close enough for a lot less money. There are basically 6 guys who could get the job done available on the market. In parentheses, their 2004-2006 OBP/SLG and my estimate for 2007 home runs.
1) Alfonso Soriano, 31, Free Agent (.327/.519, 35). ( He's a power/speed guy, so he will be productive for the length of his contract. He will also get better in the outfield.
2) Carlos Lee, 30, Free Agent (.350/.517, 33). He's got a little speed, and consistent power, average with the glove.
3) Pat Burrell, 30, Phillies (.382/.488, 29). He's owed $27 million over the next two years. That said, he's the only guy listed here that comes close to JD Drew's OBP, yet he delivers 25-30 homer type power, and he's more durable. He'll need convincing to come over, but it can be done. Phillies will require picking up his entire salary, and probably a pitcher or two. Beimel will factor in.
4) Vernon Wells, 28, Blue Jays (.339/.493, 28) He's cheap next year, but he'll need to be extended for a few years. He's a good centerfielder with 25-30 homer power, although with subpar OBP. Also a good doubles hitter. A centerfielder, so bye Matt Kemp, and likely Hu too.
5) Adam Dunn, 27, Reds (.380/.543, 42). He's owed $10 million, and his option is not valid, so an extention would be necessary. Strikes out a lot, which leads him to hit for terrible average, but walks a lot too, which gives him good OBP. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard. Defense is not a strong suit. The Reds are odd to please; they like guys who don't strike out a lot, don't care about OBP, and they love middle relievers. Joe Beimel and Mark Hendrickson along with another prospect, probably, will do it. Krivsky is asking for it.
6) Andruw Jones, 30, Braves (.345/.532, 40). He's owed a bit, and in the last year of a contract that will be dwarfed next year. An excellent player, gold glover and cleanup hitter. Decent OBP, 40 homer power. Will be the most costly, not just financially, but in terms of personnel, and any deal for him will definitely involve Broxton and Kemp.
My guess is that Colletti goes for one of the above, though two is a possibility. Going for two, though, would almost certainly rule out even the possibility of getting a big name pitcher. Assuming that Jason Schmidt is in the cards, though, here are some free agents that Ned Colletti will consider adding as that other bat:
Nomar Garicaparra, 33 (.355/.483, 17). Nomar was already on the team, a fan favorite, a great player, and certainly serviceable. He's capable of more than these predictions, but that would be satisfactory. Even signing him to 3 years wouldn't be bad if he plays in the outfield or he's the new second baseman once Kent leaves. Best 3-hitter out of the group.
Luis Gonzalez, 39 (.358/.462, 20). Gonzo was the favorite player of none other than Andre Everett Ethier, so it is not at all a stretch that Colletti would want to add such a role model. Gonzo would also be eligible for a 1 year contract, and can be brought back just in case Matt Kemp is not ready for 2008.
Cliff Floyd, 34 (.334/.466, 22). Floyd has had achilles problems, but can hit the ball pretty hard. Good enough likely for a 2 year deal.
Ryan Klesko, 35 (.377/.435, 13). Basically he's a spring training invite, guy who won't get $1million next year, if he's still playing.
Moises Alou, 41 (.373/.547, 26). He's still serviceable, but the question is how much he'll play. If given enough playing time, could be a decent middle-lineup bat.
Trot Nixon, 32 (.365/.435, 12). Has above average OBP, but frankly looks like too much of an injury risk, and demand for him at age 32 will be too high to try.
Jose Guillen, 31 (.347/.472, 24). Spring Training invite, because he just had Tommy John. Much less certain.
********************
That said, here are my rankings in order of preference of the top 6 guys:
Dunn
Jones
Burrell
Soriano
Lee
Wells
If LA gets any two of these, I'm thrilled and I say stick with the pitching we've got. If signing Barry Zito comes into play (possibly because Penny is traded), my order of preference for the other guys:
Nomar
Alou
Gonzo
Floyd
Guillen
because on second thought, I don't think Klesko or Nixon are what LA could use right now.
**************
The Dodgers lineup before:
Furcal
Loney
(help)
(help some more)
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Betemit
New lineup:
Furcal
Loney
Nomar
Dunn
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Betemit
Labels: Dodgers
# posted by StolenMonkey86 @ 2:36 AM 
