Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Optimism in the Face of Pierre and Gonzo
I find myself on net optimistic about the Dodgers next season, and I am positive that they will win at least 90 games. Here is why:
1) Player retention. This has much more meaning than a happy feeling of knowing everybody; it means that there will be fewer games lost due to miscalculation of abilites, particularly in the bullpen. Takashi Saito is a closer and Jonathan Broxton is a setup man, but that order did not happen until almost June, when Baez was clearly tanking. Franquelis Osoria wasn't that great, and Lance Carter was a nightmare. Tim Hamulack also probably got more credit that he deserved at times. Hong-Chih Kuo is clearly better suited to be a starting pitcher than a reliever.
In the rotation, the Dodgers had to deal with discovering the downside of Seo and Perez, and then Tomko and Hendrickson. Billingsley and Kuo were not revealed until later to be useful major league starters, and Sele would have been helpful in April.
Discovering Jose Cruz couldn't hit right handed pitching, which constitutes the majority of the major leagues, also hurt. Having Ethier there full-time would have been an improvement. Similarly, Martin behind the plate would have benefitted the Dodgers earlier. The Dodgers also didn't know that Julio Lugo was going to suck more than a brothel on double coupon day.
Now, all the accidentally useful players from last year are still around.
2) Better starting pitching. Jason Schmidt will be good, but how good? He is a bit homer prone, but strikes out quite a few, and he's very durable. In fact, the rotation this year is much more likely to average 6 innings or more per start, which is quite a bit.
3) Ethier, Martin, and Betemit up all year. Martin looked like he will be consistent for a long time, while Ethier is still hard to assess (although he's definitely good). Wilson Betemit will have the oppurtunity to demonstrate that he is capable of 25-35 homers when given 550+ at bats.
4) Jeff Kent is working out like never before this offseason, determined to show up in excellent shape. Kent has a good work ethic, sure, but more importantly, he has a vesting option this year. If he gets in 500 or so plate appearances, he automatically makes several million for 2008, but he has to stay healthy and productive for that. I think he's due for about 22-26 homers and a solid .885 or higher OPS even as he gets older.
5) Pierre will balance out Kenny Lofton. Lofton likely would have split time with Repko, while Pierre would play a full season. The Lofton/Repko platoon would have performed similarly to Pierre offensively, perhaps slightly better. But the improvement in defense would be substantial, as Pierre is actually reasonable at getting to balls in center field, and in fact this will likely lead to a net improvement, given that the marginal value of preventing runs is greater than the marginal value of scoring runs.
6) The replacements and callups are going to be good. Those who before last year did not follow the Dodgers' minor league system would never have guessed that Martin, Billingsley, Kemp would look so good. Next year, we could see contributions from Loney, Kemp, Laroche, Miller, Alexander, or even Scott Elbert.
Overall, I would expect the Dodgers to have a slightly less potent but more consistent offense, and I would expect something like 795 runs from them. The pitching I think would be capable of team ERA of an even 4. Assuming an equal number of unearned runs, That would be an estimate of 715 runs allowed. The Pythagorean winning percentage then would dictate about 89 or 90 wins, but due to the strength of the bullpen and Nomar's magical powers of hitting in the late innings, I'd say 92 wins isn't out of reach.
*****
As for the rest of the division, I would expect the Padres to be the closest competitor again. While still not solid at third base, they will sign Marcus Giles at 2nd. Their pitching will be good again too. They will win from 87-92 games.
The Diamondbacks are the third place and rising team in the division. Their youth movement is starting to kick in, and Hernandez and Davis are intriguing in the middle of the rotation next year. Their bullpen will not be much better though. Stephen Drew will start to look really good. I project them to win 82-86 games.
The Rockies just traded Jason Jennings to try to ruin my projections. As it happens though, I still like the team. They have a lot of young talent, and picked up some more still. Losing Jennings will hurt, but they will still be effective, and Fuentes is a good closer. I'll say 75-82 wins.
The Giants have done nothing to rebuild. Spending $16 million on Bonds was a waste as well, and they will suffer greatly. Their team continues to get older, and they will not get better, save for a few young starters. And do they have someone better than Armando Benitez to close? They'll be at the bottom, and Barry Bonds will never notice, unless Lance Niekro breaks out as a great knuckleball pitcher. Look for 71-77 wins.
1) Player retention. This has much more meaning than a happy feeling of knowing everybody; it means that there will be fewer games lost due to miscalculation of abilites, particularly in the bullpen. Takashi Saito is a closer and Jonathan Broxton is a setup man, but that order did not happen until almost June, when Baez was clearly tanking. Franquelis Osoria wasn't that great, and Lance Carter was a nightmare. Tim Hamulack also probably got more credit that he deserved at times. Hong-Chih Kuo is clearly better suited to be a starting pitcher than a reliever.
In the rotation, the Dodgers had to deal with discovering the downside of Seo and Perez, and then Tomko and Hendrickson. Billingsley and Kuo were not revealed until later to be useful major league starters, and Sele would have been helpful in April.
Discovering Jose Cruz couldn't hit right handed pitching, which constitutes the majority of the major leagues, also hurt. Having Ethier there full-time would have been an improvement. Similarly, Martin behind the plate would have benefitted the Dodgers earlier. The Dodgers also didn't know that Julio Lugo was going to suck more than a brothel on double coupon day.
Now, all the accidentally useful players from last year are still around.
2) Better starting pitching. Jason Schmidt will be good, but how good? He is a bit homer prone, but strikes out quite a few, and he's very durable. In fact, the rotation this year is much more likely to average 6 innings or more per start, which is quite a bit.
3) Ethier, Martin, and Betemit up all year. Martin looked like he will be consistent for a long time, while Ethier is still hard to assess (although he's definitely good). Wilson Betemit will have the oppurtunity to demonstrate that he is capable of 25-35 homers when given 550+ at bats.
4) Jeff Kent is working out like never before this offseason, determined to show up in excellent shape. Kent has a good work ethic, sure, but more importantly, he has a vesting option this year. If he gets in 500 or so plate appearances, he automatically makes several million for 2008, but he has to stay healthy and productive for that. I think he's due for about 22-26 homers and a solid .885 or higher OPS even as he gets older.
5) Pierre will balance out Kenny Lofton. Lofton likely would have split time with Repko, while Pierre would play a full season. The Lofton/Repko platoon would have performed similarly to Pierre offensively, perhaps slightly better. But the improvement in defense would be substantial, as Pierre is actually reasonable at getting to balls in center field, and in fact this will likely lead to a net improvement, given that the marginal value of preventing runs is greater than the marginal value of scoring runs.
6) The replacements and callups are going to be good. Those who before last year did not follow the Dodgers' minor league system would never have guessed that Martin, Billingsley, Kemp would look so good. Next year, we could see contributions from Loney, Kemp, Laroche, Miller, Alexander, or even Scott Elbert.
Overall, I would expect the Dodgers to have a slightly less potent but more consistent offense, and I would expect something like 795 runs from them. The pitching I think would be capable of team ERA of an even 4. Assuming an equal number of unearned runs, That would be an estimate of 715 runs allowed. The Pythagorean winning percentage then would dictate about 89 or 90 wins, but due to the strength of the bullpen and Nomar's magical powers of hitting in the late innings, I'd say 92 wins isn't out of reach.
*****
As for the rest of the division, I would expect the Padres to be the closest competitor again. While still not solid at third base, they will sign Marcus Giles at 2nd. Their pitching will be good again too. They will win from 87-92 games.
The Diamondbacks are the third place and rising team in the division. Their youth movement is starting to kick in, and Hernandez and Davis are intriguing in the middle of the rotation next year. Their bullpen will not be much better though. Stephen Drew will start to look really good. I project them to win 82-86 games.
The Rockies just traded Jason Jennings to try to ruin my projections. As it happens though, I still like the team. They have a lot of young talent, and picked up some more still. Losing Jennings will hurt, but they will still be effective, and Fuentes is a good closer. I'll say 75-82 wins.
The Giants have done nothing to rebuild. Spending $16 million on Bonds was a waste as well, and they will suffer greatly. Their team continues to get older, and they will not get better, save for a few young starters. And do they have someone better than Armando Benitez to close? They'll be at the bottom, and Barry Bonds will never notice, unless Lance Niekro breaks out as a great knuckleball pitcher. Look for 71-77 wins.
Labels: Dodgers
# posted by StolenMonkey86 @ 3:35 AM 
