Because I Can

The Washington Nationals right now want to build up their farm system so they can be a successful franchise. This is an excellent idea, but there's not reason not to add to payroll and shore up the rest of the team while they're at it. Since I live in a fantasy world where I make up stuff like this, I'm going to post my Nats roster for next year, with a little help from the Unofficial MLB site, which has all the contract info.

Before that happens, I will officially call the Nats getting rocked tomorrow because Roy Halladay is starting for the Blue Jays, and he's awesome.

Now, that having been said, here are the people under contract for next year:

Marlon Anderson - OF
Luis Ayala - RP
Christian Guzman - SS
Livan Hernandez - SP
Nick Johnson - 1B
Brian Schneider - C
Jose Vidro - 2B

Guys with options:

Ryan Drese - SP
Brian Lawrence - SP

Players not under contract that won't be free agents:

Chad Cordero - CP
Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
Gary Majewski - RP
Jon Rauch - RP
Ryan Church - OF
Marlon Byrd - OF
Zach Day - SP
Alexander Escobar - OF
Brendan Harris - IN
Matt LeCroy - 1B/PH
John Patterson - SP
Michael O'Connor - SP

Before looking at next year's free agent pool, let's check the roster

C - Schneider
1B - Johnson
2B - Vidro
SS - Clayton
3B - Zimmerman
OF - Escobar
OF - Church
OF - Anderson

IN - Harris
1B/PH - LeCroy

SP - Hernandez
SP* - Lawrence
SP* - Dreese
SP - Patterson
SP - Day
SP - O'Connor

CL - Cordero
RP - Rauch
RP - Majewski
RP - Ayala

Players that will be Free Agents next year:

Alfonso Soriano - OF/2B
Daryle Ward - 1B/PH
Felix Rodriguez - RP
Ramon Ortiz - SP
Damian Jackson - OF
Jose Guillen - OF
Robert Fick - C
Joseph Eischen - RP
Royce Clayton - SS
Pedro Astacio - SP
Tony Armas - SP

The question of free agents is which players are best to sign for the team, then which are best for the money. Here are people I absolutely retain.

Soriano - he can be a leader for this franchise, with his work ethic. Great arm, bat and speed.
Fick - backup catcher and pinch hitter, and that's his market value. Why not

Maybe characters:

Ward - lefty power off the bench, is price right?
Guillen - decentish bat
Armas - reliable starter, puts in his 180 innings

The rest can go. The bullpen is solid, and a mop-up man and lefty reliever can come via non-roster invite. I would expect Dreese and Lawrence to go next year, so that leaves Hernandez and Patterson, which isn't a lot. There is a need for another starter, unless the club feels like letting Hill or Day start regularly. So besides Soriano, that would be the big acquisition. Picking up another outfielder would be a priority as well, but maybe not as high a priority. Ideally, getting a true leadoff hitter will help.

I would heavily pursue Dave Roberts as my first choice there. The guy can run, and he and Sori can probably run a few double steals. If not him, then Ryan Klesko would be good too, or Kenny Lofton (who can still perform despite his age).

For the starting pitcher, Barry Zito is the big prize. But that might not be the best move, or even possible; the Nats may blow their wad on Soriano. Andy Pettite, Soriano's former teammate, might be a good acquisition if he can be coaxed away from Houston. Tom Glavine is old but can still pitch, and the same can be said for El Duque. Both Hernandez brothers would be kind of cool really. Byung-Hyung Kim is a maybe, although as diverse as DC is, he may attract a good following, and he would probably come cheaper than Chan Ho Park, though Park may be a better option. If you want to live dangerously, Kerry Wood.

Here's the end result of the Nationals, assuming the ex-Yankee pickups in the rotation.

C - Schneider
1B - Johnson
2B - Vidro
3B - Zimm
SS - Clayton
LF - Soriano
CF - Church
RF - Roberts

Bench
LeCroy
Anderson
Byrd
Harris
Fick

Rotation
1 - Livan Hernandez
2 - Andy Pettite
3 - John Patterson
4 - Orlando Hernandez
5 - Michael O'Connor

Bullpen
Cordero (CL)
Ayala
Rauch
Majewski
mop-up
lefty

That's not a bad team. Power from Soriano and Johnson, straight hitting from Vidro, and who knows what from Zimm. The bullpen for the Nats is already great. This team could challenge for the division.

Opening day lineup in 07, then

Roberts
Vidro
Soriano
Johnson
Zimmerman
Church
Clayton
Schneider
L. Hernandez

Labels: Nationals

Frank Robinson, showing his ability to create a lineup, has decided that Alfonso Soriano should bat leadoff, and he has Jose Vidro hitting third. Now, I can understand that Soriano has a speed advantage, but this just doesn't work. Soriano is an annual candidate for the 30-30 club, but he's also an annual member of the 100-strikeout club. You always want the leadoff man to be able to do what Grady Little calls "that Oakland thing." Soriano has improved in plate discipline, but he still has 42 strikeouts on the year to a mere 15 walks. Soriano also has 16 home runs on the season. Jose Vidro, the Nats' second baseman, is hitting .347 with a .407 OBP, with 18 walks to 20 strikeouts, and 4 home runs on the season. Soriano and Johnson batting 3 and 4 - both players have double digit home runs 48 games into the season - would solidify the lineup more. In addition, Marlon Byrd and his .330 slugging percentage were sitting in 6th today in the lineup, as Ryan Zimmerman, who went 2-3 today, is slugging .441. In creating a lineup, you want someone who gets on base at the top, then you want someone to at least move him in #2, then power in at least 3-5, and Soriano, Johnson, Guillen are a good trio for that. Players around that core provide protection.

Sure the Nationals won today, but Andy Pettite is having a terrible start to his season, which was typified by the fact that he only lasted 3 innings. Tony Armas is pitching effectively, but not efficiently, as he can't go deep into games because of his pitch count. But Soriano had an outfield assist.

Nonetheless, I'm looking forward to watching the first game of the Dodgers sweep of the Nationals.

Labels: Nationals

There is no joy in Los Angeles, because the left side of the infield went down the toilet. Bill Mueller made two errors, including screwing up on a rundown. The rundown play got so bad Derek Lowe even came over. Lowe was once again victim of awful defense, as after that play, Rafael Furcal threw away the ball, when he was supposed to throw to Nomar, and gave up 2 runs. Derek Lowe has an Earned Run Average of 2.98, but an Earned Run Average of 3.85. The Dodgers are playing terrible defense for everyone else too; in 35 games, they have given up 29 errors.

The 2004 Dodgers team, if you would remember, had the best defense in the National League, committing only 73 errors for a .988 team fielding percentage. It took more than good hitting from the likes of Beltre and Izturis (hit .290 that year). As it stands now, only the Brewers, Marlins, and Reds are fielding the ball worse than the Dodgers, who have a .979 team fielding percentage. Today's game demonstrated that all the dinners and pep talks that Colletti and Little wanted won't make up for playing ability. The Blue Team needs to take infield practice, as the number of errors is just unacceptable, especially behind Derek Lowe. If you can't play defense behind Lowe, he's useless. This is also why Cesar Izturis needs to see a lot of time at shortstop. Those two errors in that inning and Jeff Kent's booted ball in the opener are two games that the Dodgers lost to defense, and 2 losses Derek Lowe did not deserve.

Is fielding the only problem? Well, consider the following Dodger team batting averages
2004 ______ .262
2005 ______ .253
2006 (so far)_.264

And the team ERA's
2004 ______ 4.01
2005 ______ 4.38
2006 (so far)_ 4.20

Not that drastic a difference. But if you compare unearned runs
2004 ______ 37
2005 ______ 60
2006 (so far)_ 14

then it becomes apparent that after 35 games, the Dodgers are certainly not on course to have a good year. But just as the Rockies are not likely to keep up their season, the Dodgers have a few good things going for them later in the season:

1) Eric Gagne is feeling better. There is no update as to whether or not he is back at 97mph, but he is pain-free and scheduled for a rehab apperance on May 25. His return means that the 9th inning is safe, and that Baez has the 8th. Broxton, Beimel, and Saito are making a good case to keep their job, and it is a duel between Hamulack and Osoria to see who will stay with the big club. The Dodgers would be smart to give Odalis Perez an inning to prove he has fixed his mechanics tomorrow, and then if he looks good let him start. Jae Seo would be a much more likely candidate to become a long reliever, with Sele earning a spot in the rotation if he can repeat himself in San Francisco.

2) Cesar Izturis is scheduled to begin rehabbing on the same day, starting at class A to DH, then going to AAA to try 2nd base, and then test his arm out at 2nd base. His major league callup is scheduled to coincide with the "boo Beltre" series against the Mariners. The Dodgers would be smart to start experimenting with Furcal in left field, especially with only 4 outfielders.

3) The Dodgers from AAA that have come up have not disappointed. Aybar may see a start Friday in place of Bill Mueller. Ethier has thus far played reasonably well. Russell Martin has been outstanding. Chad Billingsley still has yet to see time with the big club, and everyone wants to see him come up.

4) The Dodgers own Brad Lidge. Every time they have faced him, he has faltered. It's not game over until we say so.

#######################

Nationals

The Nats managed a nice 9th inning comeback to keep the game going, but their pitching gave out in the 11th. Starter Zach Day did well, although he intentionally walked David Ross to get to Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo struck out every time he batted, and struck out 8 Nationals. Frank Robinson was too impatient with Rauch, and pulled him after allowing a single run, only to be replaced by two of the weaker relievers on the team. Felix Rodriguez got nobody out, nor did Joey Eischen, who had a 9.58 ERA before facing Ken Griffey Jr. Memo to Frank: don't bring in a left-handed specialist against Griffey. He's GRIFFEY! Had Robinson been more patient with Rauch, the Nationals could have still won the game, but Robinson clearly has no patience left, which will probably lead to his retirement.

Labels: Dodgers, Nationals

I've focused a lot on the Dodgers, my primary favorite team, but what of the Washington Nationals? They have problems. I address what I would take care of here.

* * * * *

The Washington Nationals, after operating on a $27 million operating income, expanded their payroll from $48 million to $63 million. There is no reason for their payroll to be below $70 million, as they have the fan base to support them from the vast DC metro area. Attendance last year was the most in franchise history - more than quadruple the previous year's attendance - and with an acutal owner, things should look up for the Nats. Washington is a much different town than it was in 1972, and the local counties happen to be among the wealthiest in the nation. RFK Stadium still has plenty of empty seats remaining, should Washington attract more fans.

* * * * *

Frank Robinson has made it standard practice that the big screen in the clubhouse stays blank before the game to give the players focus. Grady Little clearly had a better idea with looping video from the starting pitcher. A blank screen does not create focus, just a void. It still leaves the players to talking, playing cards, or whatever before the game begins, and there is no guarantee of unity in purpose. Little's concept is not only more positive, but more proactive, as it presents a common image for the players, so that they would have a common focus. While the bullpen could benefit from watching the other team bat, it does focus everyone on the common objective of beating the other team's pitcher, and thus the other team. This is only part of the problem.

* * * * *

The Nats absolutely botched the Soriano deal. Jim Bowden should be immediately fired for his complete lack of gracefulness in handling the situation, including his threat to put Soriano on the DQ list, which would bar Soriano from playing in the majors for the Nats or any other team, although a DUI conviction would certainly help put the point across.

Soriano should stay, as should Guillen. While Jose Guillen is off to a slow start, he is a quality player. Jose Vidro is a good second baseman, and should stay. Nick Johnson is playing excellent ball, and Zimmerman gives hope to the future of the organization. Byrd and Church both have excellent plate discipline, with on-base percentages that show the power of walks in comparison to their batting averages (Byrd .258 BA / .410 OBP; Church .239 BA / .386 OBP). Either one of these guys would be good at the top of the order, as they will not only get on with high likelihood, but they can make a pitcher throw a few extra pitches, which makes the whole opposing pitching staff more accessible.

Livan Hernandez is a quality starting pitcher, as is John Patterson, and rookie Michael O'Connor is promising too. Tony Armas needs to prove he can last 6 innings in his starts - basically go 180 innings - or he should be converted to a long reliever. The Nationals pitching is better once healed, given that Brian Lawrence and John Patterson will return eventually. That leaves

Hernandez
Patterson
Lawrence
O'Connor
Armas

* * * * *

The bullpen, incidentally, is the Nationals' biggest worry. The untold story of the World Baseball Classic is that the Nationals lost their setup man, Luis Ayala, to the WBC; he's got to undergo Tommy John, and apparently the team couldn't stop him from participating. Good for a 2.75 ERA over 232 innings, with 149 K and 42 walks over that time period. Losing 80 innings from Ayala will cost the Nationals dearly, as only closer Chad Cordero, John Rauch, and near-39-year-old Mike Stanton have ERA under 4 in the bullpen. With starters that can pitch deep into games, Washington can get by with this bullpen, but otherwise can consider themselves in trouble. The Nationals need to get one more quality relieve, which can be achieved easily enough by calming down the young Gary Majewski, and returning him to his career ERA of 3.31. This will keep Washington in control of games.

* * * * *

Aside from patience in waiting for the starting pitching situation to get better, the Nationals need to upgrade their shortstop position, likely in the offseason, since they do not really have an extra player to give. I don't know what the free agent market has up for grabs, but the Lerners should show that they care by getting the best free agent shortstop available, as I'm sure there will be someone for the taking.

If finding a free agent shortstop is a problem, the answer is simple enough - ask Jose Vidro to move to the other side of the middle of the infield. Then, instead of looking for a quality middle infielder, the Nationals can get a power-hitting left fielder, and put Soriano back at 2nd base where he belongs. Chipper Jones demonstrated that it is entirely possible to go from the infield to the outfield back to the infield.

Defenders of the Nationals would suggest that Soriano's defense was a liability, and that he does less harm in the outfield. While that may be, there is also to consider that power hitting left fielders are far more common than power hitting left fielders. If Ken Griffey Jr ever gets off the DL, Cody Ross will be up for grabs, and would be a worthwhile pickup for the Nationals. He has potential and can hit for power. He is also young enough that he Nationals can get him to a long term contract rather cheaply now. Once their new stadium opens, their players can demonstrate their hidden power. The point is it makes more sense to put Soriano back at second after giving him experience as a good defensive player. Then, the Nats can focus on upgrading starting pitching, so that Tony Armas can be a long reliever. If they are serious, they'll offer big bucks for 2 years to Greg Maddux.

* * * * *

The biggest changes the new ownership should make are the firings of Jim Bowden and Frank Robinson. Bowden missed the oppurtunity to get Cody Ross (come on, a player to be named later?), and has produced miserable results for Washington lately.

Frank, while a hall of famer, is frankly too old and senile to contribute anything positive to the team. It would be best for the team if he were to simply retire after this season, remarking that he is ready to retire, because it would not look ugly. It's hard to fire a hall of famer who was also the first black manager in the majors. In 1976, Robinson batted .224 with 3 home runs and 10 RBI, those homers his only extra-base hits. At that point he realized it was time to step down, and now that he cannot be pleased with his current team, it is once again that time.

* * * * *

The Nationals do not have a whole lot of a farm system left, so extending the quality of their current team will gradually get more expensive (making extending Soriano and acquiring Cody Ross good moves). Paul Depodesta, despite his infatuation with Hee Seop Choi, was a defender of the farm system, and could be effective for a team with more payroll limitations. Otherwise, I would love the job.

As for a manager, that will be the most difficult decision for the Nationals to make. It would need to be someone with a good work ethic, someone to motivate and inspire confidence in his team, and to bring out the best in his players. Again, I would love the job, but I think the best person available I can think of for this job would be Orel Hershiser.

* * * * *

So my dream scenario would be, I am the GM, Hershiser manages, and the Nats post the following lineup

Byrd/Church - CF
Vidro - SS
Soriano - 2B
Johnson - 1B
Guillen - RF
Ross - LF
Zimmerman - 3B
Schneider - C
pitcher

and rotation

Hernandez
Maddux
Patterson
Lawrence
O'Connor

and then I'd spend some money on some guys that can be reserves so that the rookies can come up slowly. As for draft picks, I would take college players only if they fill more immediate needs for the next two years and if they are among the best in the NCAA. Otherwise, I'd take high schoolers that are coachable and talented for the long range.

Now let's see if Washington can do that.

Labels: Nationals