Because I Can

Brian Sabean gave Barry Zito a 7 year, $126 million dollar deal, and I'm actually not laughing at San Francisco that much. Honestly, I like the deal, in general and for the Dodgers.

First of all, it means that Barry Zito will not be on a good team for a few years, so while the Dodgers are in the playoffs, he won't be able to do anything to them. Secondly, it's a long deal for San Francisco, which has to do something for their future payroll possibilities. Third, it means LA didn't sign him, even though Colletti wasn't going near a Boras client.

In general, the Giants already looked stupid for paying $16 million to Bonds, even though there's a reasonable chance that mister bloated head will go to jail. At least this time they signed someone under 30, and he'll only be 35 when the deal is up, so he shouldn't regress too much. Comparisons to Kevin Brown are a bit poor considering Brown signed at an age that would be near the end of Zito's deal, although it should be considered that the Yankees would be able to bail out the Giants at the end of the contract if necessary like they did with Brown; no-trade clauses, after all, can be waved.

As a friend of mine remarked earlier this afternoon, "it's sad when a team drops an eighth of a billion dollars and my first inclination is, 'well, they didn't really overpay him.'"

A friend of mine commented that he likes to check my blog to see what I have to say, but isn't as interested in a lot of the sports stuff. I have tried to post a lot of non-sports items, but they never come to fruition. The fact is that the other posts take longer to write because they require a whole lot more thought. Additionally, I always like to link to other sites, and this doesn't go over too well because I leave those windows open. Adding that altogether, my computer usually can't handle what I want to do with my web browser, so I generally have to control-alt-delete and close out the whole program, thus causing me to lose the entire post.

The moral of the story is that I need to write my blog posts in Word first before I post them online, because Word won't crash on me like that. I'll work on that one.

Labels: About the Blog, Economic Stuff, MLB

Ok, Matsuzaka is going to Boston after all: $52 Million over 6 for a total of $103.1 million over 6 years. $17.2 million a year isn't bad if he handles the majors as well as everyone expects.

Whatever. The Red Sox still have Alex Cora, and no closer.

Well, not a whole lot to choose from, even after the non-tenders. Here are your choices (note: I will update this when I hear about any changes):

Catcher
Toby Hall - the only guy on the list that represents more than just a backup, as he was the starter for Tampa Bay previously. A few decent backups remain on the list, though.

First Base
Craig Wilson - a right hander good here or in the outfield, as long as he gets some playing time
Shea Hillenbrand - another right hander, acceptable hitting first baseman
Doug Mientkevitz - noted more for glove work

Second Base
Marcus Giles - the non-tender from Atlanta would be a fine choice for any interested team.
Ronnie Belliard - he's got World Series experience
Mark Loretta - getting a bit old, but still has some use left

Third Base
Aubrey Huff - hey, we've got a hitter here. Good for 25ish home runs, a good 5 hitter to pick up.

Shortstop
nobody but backups and scrap. Please check your organizations, or ask the Dodgers for one.

Outfield
Craig Wilson - someone give him some playing time!
Trot Nixon - injury risk, but a good lefty bat
David Newhan - interesting non-tender, possibly has some potential
Bernie Williams - proved he's still capable of playing everyday
Steve Finley - 2004 centerfield gold glover. If you're counting on Hunter or Jones being available for 2008 and you need someone for the meantime, then why not.
Jeromy Burnitz - a "proven slugger" who's not much at hitting for average or plate discipline. If Francouer did not improve and just got fat and worse defensively, this is what he would be.

Starting Pitchers
Barry Zito - $$$$
Roger Clemens - ???????????????
Jeff Weaver - finally due for his 4 year $40 million contract after the postseason, or is he?
Mark Mulder - injury problems last year, but can still be good
Chan Ho Park - done with his contract from the Rangers, homer prone guy strikes out people
Ramon Ortiz - almost had a no hitter, and World Series experience
Tony Armas - was part of the trade that brought Pedro Martinez to Boston
Aaron Sele - did well for LA as a NRI to Spring Training

Relievers
Keith Foulke
Chris Reitsma
Doug Brocail
JC Romero
and some guys to invite to Spring Training


The Skinny
Starting pitching is not too thin for the middle to end of the rotation. Baltimore killed the reliever market. Very few hitters left.

UPDATE: The Giants paid a whole lot for Zito.

UPDATE 2: Basically nothing left. Except Jeff Weaver. Just like last year.

Labels: MLB

ESPN Reports the following offers regarding Matsuzaka

Boston - $48 million over 6 years

Boras - $66 million over 6 years

That translates to Boston saying Matsuzaka is worth $16.5 million per year over 6 years and Boras saying, no, $19.5 million per year. These are both a good bit lower than what I reported earlier, no doubt showing that a deal is more possible, and that the Red Sox are idiots for not taking the $11 million a year counter offer. Barry Zito is worth $15 or $16 million in this free agent market, at a bare minimum, although I'm projecting 6 years, $120 million. It is no stretch to say that Matsuzaka would outperform Zito in the majors, particularly since Matsuzaka will be less in decline; a better comparison may be Carlos Zambrano, who hits the free agent market next year. Nonetheless, Because at age 27-32 Matsuzaka will deliver the best of his playing years, it would be foolish to say he's not worth what it would cost for Zito. Additionally, Boston jumping into the Zito hunt would only drive up the left-hander's price, which would almost certianly push that to $20 million a year or so. Boston would be foolish not to go with the $11 million a year offer; after all, for the purposes of the luxury tax, it's much cheaper. Additionally, Boras will take a lot of flack if Matsuzaka is not signed, and since he represents Zito, he can get his revenge there. So Boston will parade a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon and Lester while trading off Clement. When you consider that Schilling will likely retire after this year, Boston should go ahead with it.

Labels: MLB

I find myself on net optimistic about the Dodgers next season, and I am positive that they will win at least 90 games. Here is why:

1) Player retention. This has much more meaning than a happy feeling of knowing everybody; it means that there will be fewer games lost due to miscalculation of abilites, particularly in the bullpen. Takashi Saito is a closer and Jonathan Broxton is a setup man, but that order did not happen until almost June, when Baez was clearly tanking. Franquelis Osoria wasn't that great, and Lance Carter was a nightmare. Tim Hamulack also probably got more credit that he deserved at times. Hong-Chih Kuo is clearly better suited to be a starting pitcher than a reliever.

In the rotation, the Dodgers had to deal with discovering the downside of Seo and Perez, and then Tomko and Hendrickson. Billingsley and Kuo were not revealed until later to be useful major league starters, and Sele would have been helpful in April.

Discovering Jose Cruz couldn't hit right handed pitching, which constitutes the majority of the major leagues, also hurt. Having Ethier there full-time would have been an improvement. Similarly, Martin behind the plate would have benefitted the Dodgers earlier. The Dodgers also didn't know that Julio Lugo was going to suck more than a brothel on double coupon day.

Now, all the accidentally useful players from last year are still around.

2) Better starting pitching. Jason Schmidt will be good, but how good? He is a bit homer prone, but strikes out quite a few, and he's very durable. In fact, the rotation this year is much more likely to average 6 innings or more per start, which is quite a bit.

3) Ethier, Martin, and Betemit up all year. Martin looked like he will be consistent for a long time, while Ethier is still hard to assess (although he's definitely good). Wilson Betemit will have the oppurtunity to demonstrate that he is capable of 25-35 homers when given 550+ at bats.

4) Jeff Kent is working out like never before this offseason, determined to show up in excellent shape. Kent has a good work ethic, sure, but more importantly, he has a vesting option this year. If he gets in 500 or so plate appearances, he automatically makes several million for 2008, but he has to stay healthy and productive for that. I think he's due for about 22-26 homers and a solid .885 or higher OPS even as he gets older.

5) Pierre will balance out Kenny Lofton. Lofton likely would have split time with Repko, while Pierre would play a full season. The Lofton/Repko platoon would have performed similarly to Pierre offensively, perhaps slightly better. But the improvement in defense would be substantial, as Pierre is actually reasonable at getting to balls in center field, and in fact this will likely lead to a net improvement, given that the marginal value of preventing runs is greater than the marginal value of scoring runs.

6) The replacements and callups are going to be good. Those who before last year did not follow the Dodgers' minor league system would never have guessed that Martin, Billingsley, Kemp would look so good. Next year, we could see contributions from Loney, Kemp, Laroche, Miller, Alexander, or even Scott Elbert.

Overall, I would expect the Dodgers to have a slightly less potent but more consistent offense, and I would expect something like 795 runs from them. The pitching I think would be capable of team ERA of an even 4. Assuming an equal number of unearned runs, That would be an estimate of 715 runs allowed. The Pythagorean winning percentage then would dictate about 89 or 90 wins, but due to the strength of the bullpen and Nomar's magical powers of hitting in the late innings, I'd say 92 wins isn't out of reach.

*****

As for the rest of the division, I would expect the Padres to be the closest competitor again. While still not solid at third base, they will sign Marcus Giles at 2nd. Their pitching will be good again too. They will win from 87-92 games.

The Diamondbacks are the third place and rising team in the division. Their youth movement is starting to kick in, and Hernandez and Davis are intriguing in the middle of the rotation next year. Their bullpen will not be much better though. Stephen Drew will start to look really good. I project them to win 82-86 games.

The Rockies just traded Jason Jennings to try to ruin my projections. As it happens though, I still like the team. They have a lot of young talent, and picked up some more still. Losing Jennings will hurt, but they will still be effective, and Fuentes is a good closer. I'll say 75-82 wins.

The Giants have done nothing to rebuild. Spending $16 million on Bonds was a waste as well, and they will suffer greatly. Their team continues to get older, and they will not get better, save for a few young starters. And do they have someone better than Armando Benitez to close? They'll be at the bottom, and Barry Bonds will never notice, unless Lance Niekro breaks out as a great knuckleball pitcher. Look for 71-77 wins.

Labels: Dodgers

The Red Sox have until Thursday night, and Matsuzaka doesn't look like he'll be signed. As it stands, the question is what Matsuzaka's annual value is. This assumes of course that his value is constant over time. So here's what it is for a 3-10 year contract:

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
15	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	Years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$2,033,333	$6,100,000
	4	$2,225,000	$8,900,000
	5	$4,780,000	$23,900,000
	6	$6,483,333	$38,900,000
	7	$7,700,000	$53,900,000
	8	$8,612,500	$68,900,000
	9	$9,322,222	$83,900,000
	10	$9,890,000	$98,900,000

Clearly, not a $15 million pitcher given how commonly Japanese players get 3 year deals. Let's say $20 million.

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
20	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$2,966,667	$8,900,000
	4	$7,225,000	$28,900,000
	5	$9,780,000	$48,900,000
	6	$11,483,333	$68,900,000
	7	$12,700,000	$88,900,000
	8	$13,612,500	$108,900,000
	9	$14,322,222	$128,900,000
	10	$14,890,000	$148,900,000

We notice here that all the numbers are in the black. My guess is that this is where Boston sees Matsuzaka's value. But let's try $25 million.

51.1	Posting fee (millions)
25	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$7,966,667	$23,900,000
	4	$12,225,000	$48,900,000
	5	$14,780,000	$73,900,000
	6	$16,483,333	$98,900,000
	7	$17,700,000	$123,900,000
	8	$18,612,500	$148,900,000
	9	$19,322,222	$173,900,000
	10	$19,890,000	$198,900,000

ESPN is saying Boras wants Zito money for Matsuzaka, particularly 6 years, $100 million. That seems like a bridgeable gap, but it clearly has huge implications for Matsuzaka. His salary nearly triples for a 3 year contract, and even for a 6 year contract there's a 43% difference. Keep in mind that the total cost here to Boston is only a 25% difference.

Boras would argue that with a rotation of Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, plus Wakefield and Clement, the Red Sox could easily find an NL suitor for Clement if they needed to shed salary and avoid the luxury tax. The ultimate leverage, though, would be based on what Matsuzaka would get next year. An MLB.com article said Matsuzaka could become a general free agent, and that would open him up to much higher salaries (although with a $2 million deal for 2007), but compare that to holding out with Luke Hochevar.

**********

Ultimately, the posting system as it was set up was flawed, as it was a sealed bid first-price auction. Teams would not bid their true value, but rather either bid very high to block, or bid just enough to get access and sign. What would have made more sense would have been better would be to bid in a sealed bid second-price auction. If you bid $50 million, you would pay up to that amount, but you would not actually have to spend that much, but only the second place bid, which might have been $32 million. Here's what Boston would offer Matsuzaka then:

32	Posting fee (millions)
20	Matsuzaka's value (in $millions/year)
	years	Salary	Total Contract
	3	$9,333,333	$28,000,000
	4	$12,000,000	$48,000,000
	5	$13,600,000	$68,000,000
	6	$14,666,667	$88,000,000
	7	$15,428,571	$108,000,000
	8	$16,000,000	$128,000,000
	9	$16,444,444	$148,000,000
	10	$16,800,000	$168,000,000

This is much closer to what Boras is looking for. Realistically, teams would likely bid a bit more and teams looking for a high-priced block would need to price themselves so high that they may not be able to make a "good faith" effort to get the pitcher, causing the commissioner to intervene and nullify their bid. Perhaps the most interesting effect of this is that if the player went to New York, the Yankee Premium would not be absorbed by Matsuzaka, but rather by the posting team.

Labels: MLB

The Dodgers successfully created the surplus of pitching Ned Colletti talked about. The question is: what do you do with it now? One theory involves trading Brad Penny for a power bat, but his value is low after a poor post all-star performance. The other option for LA looks like Hong-Chih Kuo, who in a brief sample as a starter did well, but it remains to be seen how the league will adjust to him. But here are those Dodger pitchers who look like they have a reasonable chance of being part of the opening day roster, a trade, or something.

Starters
Derek Lowe: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Brad Penny: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline , MLB4u
Chad Billingsley: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline , MLB4u
Hong-Chih Kuo: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline , MLB4u
Jason Schmidt: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline , MLB4u
Randy Wolf: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Mark Hendrickson: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Brett Tomko: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline , MLB4u
Eric Stults: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
DJ Houlton: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline

Relievers
Jonathan Broxton: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Takashi Saito: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u, Japan
Joe Beimel: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Yhency Brazoban: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Greg Miller: BP, CBS Sportsline
Mark Alexander: CBS Sportsline
Elmer Dessens: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Franquelis Osoria: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u
Tim Hamulack: BR, BP, CBS Sportsline, MLB4u

I'm not going to put Scott Elbert on there, personally, because I think he still needs more seasoning in the minors.

But as it stands, I'd expect/suggest the following staff for next year:
Rotation
Schmidt
Lowe
Penny
Wolf
Kuo

Bullpen
Saito (CL)
Broxton
Billingsley
Beimel
Brazoban
Dessens

And I would definitely trade Tomko off, along with Toby Hall. At the deadline, I'd expect one of the starters to be traded, which pushes Billingsley back into the 4th starter's role and Greg Miller being called up. Billingsley would also take to the rotation in the event that any of the starters is injured.

As it stands now, the Dodgers have just signed Wolf, Schmidt, Gonzalez, and Pierre as free agents, so they can't be traded for a while. That essentially limits the trade options for a power bat to Penny, Billingsley, and Kuo, neither of which would be a good idea, because the young guys shouldn't go and Penny's value is low because of his second half. An ideal package includes Pierre and/or Gonzalez, and would result in an outfield of Wells or Jones and Kemp with Ethier in left. Although if Kemp needs the rest of the year in AAA, that's ok too, as long as Pierre can be traded quickly.

***

Addendum: Osoria has been grayed out because he was claimed off waivers by the Pirates.

Labels: Dodgers

Google's Blogger software finally updated so you can put labels and categories on posts. This is very useful; now I don't have to put the subjects in the title. More importantly, you can click on the specific category to see something you're interested in. Not much else has changed from what I can tell so far, but that's good enough for me.

Labels: About the Blog